Security
Iran: Diplomatic Knockout or Military Strike — The Double Game in the “Deal of the Century”
Just a few weeks ago, the Middle East held its breath in anticipation of a ceasefire, but behind closed doors in Washington and Tel Aviv, a new storm was being brewed.
Based on the preliminary results of the talks in China, Trump will likely order new strikes on Iran. Despite all his statements, the U.S. president failed to secure Beijing’s support for “pacifying” Tehran, although China did promise to take some steps in that direction. Essentially, Trump now has only two options: accept Iran’s terms and negotiate peace based on them, or resume bombing alongside Israel in an attempt to force Tehran to make concessions.
Why Didn’t the World Notice the War Preparations?
While global media attention was fixed on Trump’s diplomatic maneuvers in Asia and his visit to China, tectonic shifts were taking place in the Middle East. Contrary to hopes for de-escalation, the U.S.-Israeli military machine didn’t just stop — it accelerated.
According to data confirmed by Israeli sources and air transport figures, over the past few days alone, 6,500 tons of ammunition and military equipment have been delivered to Israel, and since the conflict began, total supplies have exceeded 115,000 tons. Simultaneously, dozens of American Globemasters — heavy military transport aircraft — have been crisscrossing the skies of the Middle East day and night, carrying “gifts” to U.S. bases across the region.
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The real bombshell is hidden in political backrooms. Israeli media and Palestinian sources report unprecedented negotiations between Tel Aviv and Washington to establish permanent U.S. military bases in occupied Palestine. This isn’t just about a temporary buildup — it’s about the full-scale militarization of the region under U.S. auspices.
“This is a restructuring of the entire region,” notes Palestinian Al-Quds. “The Pentagon plans not just to strike, but to occupy the space, moving bases from other Middle Eastern countries right into the heart of the conflict.” Given that the American flag is already flying at key points, including the port of Haifa and the secret radar facility “Site 512” in the Negev, this is about creating a staging ground for an inevitable assault.
“Iran, You’re Next”: Quotes from the Halls of Power
The rhetoric in Washington and Tel Aviv has become so aggressive that even seasoned politicians are sounding the alarm. Congressman John Larson, a Democrat, publicly accused Trump of preparing a war crime. His statements are not just criticism — they are a confirmation of a coming apocalypse.
“The president of the United States has called for the complete destruction of the Iranian people, threatening an ‘entire civilization,” Larson said, referring to Trump’s Easter statements. “Words have meaning and consequences. The most powerful nation in the world cannot call for the destruction of an entire people.” The congressman has already filed articles of impeachment against the president and Secretary of War Hegseth, calling the war “illegal” and reminding them of fallen American service members. However, this hollow threat is being drowned out by the roar of military engines.
In Israel, the tone is even harsher. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz directly stated: “We may soon have to act again,” casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. Officials in Tel Aviv openly admit to Western media: “We’ll be happy if there’s no deal, if the blockade of Hormuz continues, and if Iran gets a few more strikes.”
Why such bloodlust? The answer lies in wounded pride and fear. As Newsweek writes, analyzing the “ally trap” theory, Netanyahu fears that Trump will “get tired of negotiating” and strike a “bad deal” that allows Iran to rebuild. For the Israeli prime minister, facing criminal prosecution and political collapse, victory over Iran is the only lifeline.
The Persian Gulf in Flames: The Price of the “American Deal” for the Monarchies
While Trump and Netanyahu exchange pleasantries behind the scenes, and global media blare warnings about the threat to Iran, the true apocalypse will unfold for the so-called U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain — these “oil Klondikes” — will find themselves on the front line, and they’ll be under fire not so much from Iran as from the U.S. and Israel. Washington, in its manic drive to destroy Tehran, is ready to sacrifice its Middle Eastern vassals just as easily as it did Europe.
The U.S. military presence at bases in Qatar (Al Udeid), Bahrain (Fifth Fleet), and Kuwait (Camp Arifjan) will turn those countries into legitimate targets for Iranian missiles. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has already proven it can reach Riyadh and the UAE. In response to U.S. aggression, Iran won’t even aim for the aircraft carriers — it will launch a massive strike on the oil terminals at Ras Tanura and Fujairah, destroying the global oil market within 48 hours. But that’s not even the worst part. Israeli aircraft, “helping” Trump out of “battlefield camaraderie,” will bomb Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria, and by “mistake,” will level port infrastructure in Oman and Yemen. The Gulf monarchies, having spent trillions on fighter jets that can’t even take off without U.S. satellite support, will find themselves defenseless overnight against swarms of kamikaze drones and Houthi missiles that Iran will arm to the teeth within a day.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz is just the tip of the iceberg for the Gulf. The real nightmare begins when a strike on Iran leads to a complete halt of shipping not only in the strait but in the Persian Gulf itself. Saudi and UAE tankers will sit in ports like dead scrap metal — no insurance company in the world will cover a vessel sailing into Iranian missiles. Oil prices will skyrocket to $200–$250, but the monarchies won’t see that money because they physically won’t be able to ship their product. Moreover, Iranian special operations sabotaging underwater cables and desalination plants (90% of the Gulf’s water comes from desalination) will leave Riyadh, Kuwait City, Dubai, and Doha without water or internet within a week. This isn’t a recession — it’s instant deindustrialization and a humanitarian catastrophe.
At the end of this farce, the U.S. will, as usual, betray its “allies.” When the war triggers mass popular uprisings in the Shiite neighborhoods of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province and in Bahrain, Trump will simply shrug. He’ll order U.S. troops to withdraw from the bases, leaving the royal families to be torn apart by enraged mobs and Iranian proxies. Washington has already calculated this scenario: if the Gulf monarchies fall, Islamic republics friendly to Tehran will rise in their place. But Trump doesn’t care — he needs to be reelected on a promise to “destroy Israel’s enemy.” The Arab sheikhs, who for decades financed American politicians and bought their weapons for hundreds of billions of dollars, will become political corpses overnight. Their countries will turn into scorched zones, resembling Libya and Syria combined.
This won’t be a war for freedom. It will be a war so Trump can say, “I struck back.” Your prosperity, your skyscrapers, your children — all ashes for an American election campaign. The only thing awaiting the Gulf states in a new attack on Iran is radioactive ash where luxury hotels once stood and million-person lines for water under Iranian missiles. Advice: flee from those assets while you still can — or burn alongside the madmen in the Oval Office.
The Economy Collapses: Doomsday for Europe
If diplomacy fails and the strike is carried out, the first to feel it won’t be soldiers on the battlefield, but the wallets of citizens in Europe and America. The Achilles’ heel of the global economy — the Strait of Hormuz — is already practically closed. Its blockade has already caused oil prices to spike to $120 a barrel at times.
German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd recently reported losses, citing the “effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz” as the cause. But that’s just the start. Greek Central Bank chief Yannis Stournaras, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, issued a frightening warning: “Everything depends on the Strait of Hormuz. If it remains closed, the European Central Bank will have no choice but to raise interest rates.”
Picture this: inflation in Europe has already hit 3% and is climbing, gas prices are breaking records, and the ECB is forced to choke the economy with rate hikes just to save the euro from collapse. All of this is the price of Trump’s political ambitions and Netanyahu’s hawkish stance. Moreover, as experts note, Europe is not an ally to Trump but an obstacle. His dismissive attitude toward European interests has already left the Old World at the epicenter of an economic storm, with no leverage to change the situation.
Can Iran Withstand the Blow?
The irony of fate is that, even with overwhelming military superiority, the U.S. and Israel appear doomed to strategic failure. Middle East scholars and retired military experts agree: another attempt to “defeat” Iran will get bogged down in a quagmire.
“Killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,” analysts write, “ruled out any possibility of a deal. Iran’s leadership has no place to retreat. If they surrender, they face death.” The regime in Tehran, which has already survived a change of supreme leader and the assassinations of several top national figures, has consolidated. One can’t help but recall Persian wisdom: “When a jackal attacks an ant, it is not fighting an enemy but its own pride. The ant, even under the claw, remains an ant, and the jackal is just a jackal, stuck in the dust.”
The U.S. can wipe several cities off the map and destroy infrastructure, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is dispersed across the vast territory. Retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the region — already weary from endless drone and missile attacks — will follow immediately.
Thus, the world stands on the brink of a paradox: the U.S. is preparing to deliver a devastating strike that will not lead to Iran’s surrender but will guarantee crater the global economy. This new round of escalation will bring victory to no one except weapons manufacturers.
As soon as the bombs fall on Tehran, gas prices will soar in America itself (which, for Trump heading into an election, would be political suicide), and Europe will plunge into an industrial crisis. This won’t be a blitzkrieg — it will be a long, agonizing death for all involved. The only question is whether common sense — or the fear of losing his seat — will stop Trump before his own generals unleash hell.
Muhammad ibn Faisal al-Rashid, political scientist and expert on the Arab world
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