NEO: Chinese Wisdom: A Necessity in a Changing World Order: Taut Bataut: 17-04-2026: *************

 

Society

Chinese Wisdom: A Necessity in a Changing World Order

Taut Bataut, April 17, 2026

Chinese strategic wisdom, grounded in four major concepts, guides its approach to international relations. In the context of a rapidly changing world order, these principles offer timeless wisdom that the world needs today more than ever to address complex global challenges, maintain stability, and foster cooperative solutions.

Introduction

“When benevolence and justice are not practiced, the position of strength shifts” (Jia Yi)

The world today is at the peak of disarray and chaos, whereby the established powers, in particular the US, are going out of control. The current world order is marked by fragmentation, erosion of trust, and pursuit of national interest at the cost of others. The middle and small states are compelled to head towards strategic autonomy. The search for survival has created a security dilemma throughout the world. This is the result of the system created and promoted by the West. The international arena is witnessing the jewels of so-called Western democracy and rules-based order. The world is now at the brink of a major war. It simply needs a reset. And China has its key. Ancient Chinese political wisdom, often misinterpreted by the West, can be a beacon of light for the world, which has been plunged into the darkness. China’s peaceful rise is its best manifestation. If the PRC could grow peacefully, then why not the international community?

From Tiānxià to Wú Wéi, Chinese wisdom is calling the world to break the shackles of the past and usher in an era characterized by harmony, integration, and prosperity

Four Strategic Concepts

A. Tiānxià

The concept of Tiānxià, translated as ‘All Under Heaven,’ is the classical and foundational idea in ancient Chinese political discourse. It is closely linked to the early Chinese cosmology and governance philosophy. It simply contends that the world is interconnected, where a unified moral-political order exists. It views the international arena as a harmonized system where there is no room for fragmentation and chaos. This concept is extensively discussed in ancient Chinese texts, including the ‘Shujing’ (Book of Documents) and ‘Liji’ (Book of Rites). This idea is based upon key principles: a single political community should exist; authority should be derived from justice, benevolence, and the welfare of people; and there should be a Datong (Great Harmony), which is characterized by integration, not domination. The PRC’s Belt and Road Initiative is its prime example whereby China promotes economic interdependence under a shared system.

B. Hé ér bù tóng

The concept of Hé ér bù tóng, meaning ‘harmony without uniformity,’ is another pearl of ancient Chinese wisdom, which, if implemented today in its true form, could lead to a more prosperous world. This concept was first provided by ancient Chinese philosopher Confucius in his classical text, the Lúnyǔ (Analects). He famously stated, “The gentleman seeks harmony but not sameness; the petty man seeks sameness but not harmony.” This idea stipulates various principles. Diverse systems and cultures are compatible. Diversity is not a curse but a blessing. Unity and autonomy should have a delicate balance. This idea is reflected in Chinese-led international organizations such as BRICS, whereby different nations belonging to distinct state systems, cultures, and political thoughts cooperate with each other, prioritizing harmony over uniformity.

C. Shì

The idea of Shì, which can be translated as ‘strategic arrangement of power,’ draws its origins from the works of two of the most outstanding ancient Chinese philosophers and thinkers, Han Feizi and Sun Tzu. Whereas Sun Tzu used this concept on military policies, Han Feizi was more concerned with politics and governance. It negates that idea of brute force; rather, healthy competition is emphasized. This principle states that the positioning of an entity decides its fate. Even a weaker state can win against a stronger one if it controls terrain, time, and position. It works on the idea that the best victory is the one that occurs without direct confrontation. In addition, it also emphasizes the importance of adaptability in the ever-changing geopolitical environment.

D. Wú Wéi

Wú Wéi, also known as ‘non-coercive action,’ contends that statesmen should observe strategic restraint and avoid excessive interventions in state affairs. The concept is based on the fact that minimum interference would produce maximum results. Classical Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu proposed this idea in his canonical work Dao De Jing. He pointed out that rulers must not impose their will too much but instead go with the flow. His famous words were, ‘The best of rulers is but a shadowy figure, who allows the people to rule themselves; even so, all is well.’ This idea also calls for the minimization of conflict, which is the reason we observe China’s non-confrontational stance in international matters. It simply contends that avoiding unnecessary aggression or use of force would result in eternal stability and sustainability. The PRC’s COVID-19 policies are its best manifestation. Instead of pursuing tactical policies, China opted for vaccine diplomacy, allowing the international community to adapt according to their needs and wants.

Why These Concepts Matter Today?

The classical Chinese strategic concepts provide a clear roadmap for every nation, belonging to any ideology, to follow and get the desired outcome in a peaceful manner. The current multipolar world order is in dire need of such guiding principles. What the West has always been doing is implementing their version of a governance model throughout the globe. The Trump 2.0 administration is even more ambitious to do this, which has created a mess on the international chessboard.

The world should abide by the principle of Hé ér bù tóng, which enables diverse groups to coexist peacefully. To preserve its past position of eminence, the US has now embarked on a path whereby it is pursuing a policy of overt domination, compelling states to follow a particular set of standards. This fragmentation could be tackled by the idea of Tiānxià, which promotes integration rather than domination. The multipolarity is a fact today, and the US should come out of its unipolar illusion.

Likewise, the US is once again instigating its competitors by creating instability at their doorsteps. Iran is under attack, Taiwan is already volatile, Japan is going on the offensive, and the Philippines is becoming a new Ukraine. All this arrangement is to hurt the PRC. The world should uphold the principle of Shì — the strategic configuration of power whereby, instead of waging wars against the competitors, an indirect and healthy competition should be observed.

There should be an environment where strategies are executed in a peaceful way to mold the outcomes in one’s own favor. This is exactly what the world is right now witnessing, with the PRC letting the US make mistakes without direct confrontation. Whether it’s Venezuela, Iran, or Cuba, the US is overtly using force to alter the status quo. The world now requires a non-coercive governance model — Wú Wéi — which is characterized by strategic restraint and observes the principles of non-interference.

Conclusion

From Tiānxià to Wú Wéi, Chinese wisdom is calling the world to break the shackles of the past and usher in an era characterized by harmony, integration, and prosperity. The PRC has never imposed its governance model; rather, it has always allowed the international community to adapt Chinese principles as per their strategic needs. Contrary to this, the West has always tried to impose its self-constructed principles on others, the results of which are now apparent. The world is once again standing at the brink of a major catastrophe, which is clear proof of Western failure in managing the geopolitics. Therefore, it’s the prime time to acknowledge the fact and embark on a journey where the wisdom and intellect of different civilizations collectively function together.

 

Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics

NEO: Why the US is at War with Iran and Why the War Might Pause but won't End: Brian Berletic: WED 28th April, 2026: *****************

 

Politics

Why the US is at War with Iran and Why the War Might Pause but Won’t End

Brian Berletic, April 28, 2026

While much discussion of the US war of aggression against Iran has focused on region-specific factors, including the myth that the US is fighting Iran on “behalf of Israel,” there are far more realistic and important global factors that have led to the war and will unfold because of it. 

The war on Iran is part of a decades-spanning US project to assume complete control over the Middle East and the oil and gas that is produced and exported from the region. This is not as a means of taking the energy for the United States’ own use but to establish and enhance a US monopoly over energy production and exports from the US itself and from the nations and regions the US is assuming control over.

This includes most recently Venezuela in Latin America. The early 2026 US war of aggression against the Venezuelan state, kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, and taking hostage of the remaining Venezuelan government led to the almost immediate cutting of Venezuelan oil exports to China and the distribution of Venezuelan oil wealth to US corporations.

What the US often refers to as “security guarantees” for its “allies” is merely a euphemism for US military occupation, political capture, and control of what are actually proxies — not allies

A similar war of aggression by the US against Russia through Ukraine is also quickly expanding into a war directly against Russian energy production, storage, and export infrastructure through the use of drones that — while attributed to Ukraine — the New York Times has revealed are actually overseen by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the US military.

Likewise, the US is encouraging its European proxies under a “division of labor” to expand maritime tracking, interdiction, and seizure of tankers carrying Russian energy exports, as well as a US campaign using maritime drones to attack the tankers. Again, the NYT has identified the US CIA and US military as having “supercharged” what are nominally claimed to be “Ukrainian” operations.

Together with the war on Iran, a clear, global pattern emerges of what is the deliberate US disruption, destruction, and even shutting down of energy exports to Asia in general, but to China specifically.

While the US was likely also attempting to quickly topple the Iranian government to enhance its control over the region and further isolate both Russia and China, a much wider and more global-focused objective was to cut off energy not just from Iran to Asia and specifically China, but from the entire Middle East to Asia and China.

The most recent phase of US aggression against Iran — beginning in late February and as a continuation of violence launched against Iran in both 2025 under the Trump administration and even 2024 at the end of the Biden administration — involved targeting Iranian energy production as well as strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s key energy export facility.

US strikes on Iranian energy production led to retaliatory strikes by Iran on America’s Persian Gulf Arab state proxies, including Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Collectively, this violence led to reduced production across the entire region, subsequently leading to lower energy exports of gas and oil from the entire Middle East to China when compared with pre-war levels.

From the late-February start of hostilities to the recent ceasefire agreement, energy exports from the entire region to China dropped from approximately 52% of China’s total imported needs to around 30%, according to Reuters.

A March 2026 Politico article makes it clear that beyond just China’s dependence on the region for energy, Asia as a whole depends on energy imports from the Middle East for between 70% and 90%+ of their total energy import needs — especially US proxies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and the island province of Taiwan.

Isolating China, Controlling Asia 

Just as the US had previously done to Europe through its instigation of war with Russia in Ukraine, the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, and the implementation of sanctions on all other energy imports from Russia — and now including the striking of Russian energy production, storage, export facilities, and actual tankers carrying Russian energy exports — all of this forcing Europe into energy dependence on US exports — the US is now pursuing a similar policy targeting China and the rest of Asia by deliberately disrupting access to Middle East energy exports.

The war on Iran has led to the close regulation of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, followed by a US-imposed blockade primarily targeting ships exporting energy from Iran to China. While US claims of completely controlling maritime traffic to and from Iran are false, the US blockade has turned back or seized at least half of all maritime traffic attempting to leave Iran onward, mainly to China, the Financial Times reported.

This means that the total energy exports from the region to China have dropped yet again — with many other options held by the US in reserve to decrease regional exports to Asia and specifically China even further.

One option is the threat of resumed US military aggression against Iran, which could see both the deliberate targeting and wider destruction of Iranian energy production and export infrastructure and further Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy production across the US’ Persian Gulf Arab proxies.

The emerging consequences of the US war on Iran and the regional impact it is having are analogous to the US-destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines and the incremental targeting, sanctioning, and restriction of Russian energy flows to Europe, leaving only US energy exports as an option — an option that was not economically viable until the US eliminated existing, cheaper, and reliable alternatives.

With the US war open-ended — having continued from late 2024 to today — with only months of relative calm between US campaigns of military aggression, the prospects of accessing affordable and reliable energy from the Middle East  for China and the rest of Asia are steadily fading.

“Serendipitously,” the US has already begun the expansion of an already massive energy production and export industry targeting Asia specifically.

In 2025, US-based energy corporation Glenfarne and its CEO Brendan Duval repeatedly mentioned the fact that their new  LNG project under construction in Alaska could export energy to Asia “through uncontested and safe shipping lanes.”

No mention was made at the time that it would be the US itself contesting shipping lanes and making them unsafe and thus enhancing the viability of both Glenfarne’s Alaska LNG project as well as the expansion of US energy export capacity in general.

It should be noted that Glenfarne had honed its expertise in exporting/importing LNG through a project in Colombia made possible only by the US sanctioning of neighboring Venezuela and the closure of pipelines that would have otherwise supplied Colombia with gas. Only because of the US-imposed pipeline closure in Venezuela did the importing of Texas LNG to Colombia by Glenfarne make any economic sense.

Similarly, only through US threats of conflict and actual conflict endangering vital maritime chokepoints around the globe does the exporting of LNG to Asia and beyond make any economic sense — just like exporting US LNG to Europe only made sense after Nord Stream was destroyed and sanctions were placed on much cheaper and more readily available Russian energy.

The Cart Before the Horse, But for a Reason  

By the early 2030s, the US is expected to double its LNG export capacity, making it capable of meeting the demands of key Asian proxies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as the island province of Taiwan — but again, only if cheaper and more reliable alternatives remain off the market.

This means that while the US is essentially placing the cart before the horse, it is ensuring that when the horse finally arrives, conditions are ideal for the US and the US alone to benefit.

Just like with Europe and the elimination of their access to cheap Russian energy imports, complete energy dependence on the US of America’s Asian proxies will transform them further and fully into extensions of US geopolitical ambitions in the region and around the globe.

Just like with Europe, serving US interests will come at the cost of each US proxy in Asia as well as at the cost of peace and stability for the entire region, and specifically at the expense of China’s continued rise, just as Europe has been used to target Russia at the expense of both Russia and the rest of Europe.

In addition to the US political capture of these Asian proxies, the presence of US military forces on their territory, and now the imposition of energy dependence upon them, a recent US Senate hearing has made it clear nations like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines will be shaped into military industrial outposts of US power in the region, helping minimize the “tyranny of distance” the US is faced with when provoking war with China on the other side of the planet from where the US is actually located.

The creation of factories making US weapons in Asia and port facilities in the region for implementing repairs on US ships is already underway, with Japan having manufactured and, in some cases, even sending back to America Patriot missile interceptors and South Korea securing deals to maintain US naval cargo vessels.

All of these preparations are taking place ahead of what the US sees as an inevitable confrontation with China itself – which is ultimately the priority driving US conflict against Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and many other nations in the first place, all as a means of first isolating and containing China before confronting it directly.

Considering the costs Europe and Persian Gulf Arab states are paying for their subordination to the US and their role in hosting and facilitating US wars of aggression in their respective regions of the world, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are likewise painting targets on themselves ahead of any confrontation with China.

What the US often refers to as “security guarantees” for its “allies” is merely a euphemism for US military occupaWhy the US is at war with Irantion, political capture, and control of what are actually proxies — not allies. The purpose of maintaining a global network of proxies from Europe to the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific is specifically to have other nations pay all the costs for US foreign policy, allowing the US to assume any and all benefits solely for itself.

The prospect of US war around the globe continuously escalating in the near to intermediate future is inevitable because the wars taking place now are being fought specifically to prepare for a future confrontation with China itself. For this reason, the prospects of the US arriving at any sort of “peace” deal with Russia or Iran are near zero.

Until the interests driving US foreign policy — including the arms industry, big oil and gas, big tech, the automotive industry, and many others — are displaced around the globe by the alternatives offered by multipolarism, and until the multipolar world can create sufficient deterrence against not only US military aggression but also the economic coercion, political interference, and capture that lead to that aggression, the US will continue to hold global peace, prosperity, and stability hostage to its demands for continued unipolar hegemony over the planet.

 

Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer.

NEO: How U.S. Foreign Policy Affects the World and America Itself: Simon Westewood: Thursday 29th April, 2026: ***********

 

Politics

How U.S. Foreign Policy Affects the World and America Itself

Simon Westwood, April 29, 2026

Contemporary U.S. foreign policy remains one of the key drivers of global instability, producing complex consequences for both the international system and American society itself.

There is a common belief that the American people are utterly bad, entirely ignorant, and warmongers. However, quite contrary to the common belief, the majority of the American people are not utterly bad, not entirely ignorant, and are not warmongers. It is critical to understand why such a common belief has gained so much acceptance around the world.

After World War II, the successive US administrations have done so much to create insecurity and chaos around the globe. So much so, not a single country around the globe has been spared by the US administrations. The US created the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the name of security; however, NATO has been an actor of insecurity and chaos in Europe.

For instance, the wishes of the US and NATO to make Ukraine a military bulwark against Russia and its interests have greatly backfired and have resulted in infinite problems for the innocent people of Ukraine. The US wanted to make Ukraine a huge military base and to exploit the resources of Ukraine to the benefit of selected US policymakers, not for the benefit of the people of Ukraine. Now, Trump wants to kick Spain out of NATO, simply because Spanish leadership is not giving in to the US demands.

The facts clearly reveal that America is being governed by certain people who have no remorse for the sufferings of the common and innocent American people

The US Military Bases around the Globe

The US has more than 850 military bases around the globe. These bases stretch from the Far East to the Arctic Region as well as to the southernmost region of the world in Africa. These military bases act as forward operations centres and can conduct military operations in a matter of minutes in their respective areas of operations.

These bases require billions of dollars in terms of maintenance and operational expenses. These bases endanger the lives and livelihoods of the common people of the host country. This is exactly what we have seen in March and April 2026, when Iran attacked US military bases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq. The innocent people of these countries paid the ultimate price.

US Fake Nation-Building around the Globe

After the 9/11 attacks in September 2001, the US illegally invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 and launched another illegal attack against the de jure government of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in March 2003. The American leaders, who were comprised predominantly of the Neo Conservatives or Neocons, lobbied for wars and military operations around the globe that started the Global War on Terror. The dominant lot of the terrorists were Afghan and Arab Mujahedeen who fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union. This is how America paid back its loyal mercenaries.

According to one of the leading and pioneer American research universities, i.e., Brown University, until 2025, the US has spent a total of 8 trillion USD on the Global War on Terror. The study was unveiled in 2021, and since that time onwards, the spending could have increased significantly. Also, this global war resulted in the deaths of almost 900,000 people, mostly innocent people who had nothing to do with any terrorist activity or organization. In another study conducted by the American think tank Stimson Centre in 2018, the US peaked its military spending on counterterrorism operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria at almost 260 billion USD.

The Worsening Situation of US Veterans

On the other hand, it is also very eye opening that the US military personnel and veterans who actually fought those illegal wars are completely neglected by the US administrations. For instance, the Trump administration has cut 30% of federal jobs for veterans, which resulted in the loss of 62,000 federal jobs. These jobs were previously done by US military veterans. These observations were made by the think tank known as the Centre on Budget and Policy Priorities.

As per the latest report by American Psychological Association published in March 2026, the US Department of Veteran Affairs is severely suffering from budget cuts and shortages, which has resulted in severe undermining of the agency’s ability to provide health care and mental health care to veterans.

This situation is generating the tendency of committing suicide among the US veterans. In a 2025 report by the American RAND Research Organization, in the year 2022 alone, a total of 6,407 American veterans died by committing suicide. We can well imagine this tendency is growing, and with the budget cuts and lack of opportunities, the rate of suicide among US veterans could grow monumentally.

The US created ISIS* and Terrorism

In a 2014 article published in the New York Times by American scholars Andrew Thompson and Jeremi Suri, the article was titled “How America Helped ISIS.” Mr. Jeremi Suri is a distinguished American scholar, and Mr. Andrew Thompson is a US military veteran who took part in military operations in Iraq. The authors argued that the US used “large detention facilities that group together violent radicals and moderate detainees in the same space, only creating the seeds for further radicalization and violence.” The American think tank Strauss Centre also noted the same, citing the same authors.

Conclusion

The American people need to look inwards for their problems and the problems their country is facing. The time has come that the American people must open their eyes and remove the war-mongering elements from within their government. The facts clearly reveal that America is being governed by certain people who have no remorse for the sufferings of the common and innocent American people. The American policymakers and politicians are completely indifferent about the miserable lives of the American people, and they are only busy making profits by waging illegal and immoral wars against pseudo-enemies and sometimes self-created enemies.

Former US Army Brigadier General Steve Anderson said that Trump turned the US Army into the Trump Militia. It is very alarming that the US policymakers, politicians, military generals, and lobbyists helped award the defence contracts to their favourite people and made billions of USD in terms of kickbacks and bribes.

*-banned in Russia

 

Simon Westwood is a master’s student at Dublin City University (DCU), Ireland. He is also a research assistant at DCU’s Department of History

NEO: NEO: The Failure of Trump's Iran PolicyL Bad Luck or Happenstance ? Henry Kamens: 29th April, 2026. ***********

 

The Failure of Trump’s Iran Policy: ‘Bad Luck,’ Design, or Happenstance?

Henry Kamens, April 29, 2026

The Trump administration’s policy toward Iran — accompanied by mixed signals and increased pressure — is leading to a diplomatic deadlock, raising the risk of a large-scale conflict, and undermining confidence in American diplomacy.

WASHINGTON / ISLAMABAD — if you think Trump’s foreign policy has been rocky so far, imagine sending US ground troops into Iran. Like the captive in the Soviet film White Sun of the Desert—he was asked whether he prefers a quick death or prolonged torture — Washington seems to be choosing the slow, humiliating option.

Mixed messages, grandiose public claims, and a naval blockade that undercuts talks have turned peaceful diplomacy into a farce. The result: US credibility is shredded, negotiations are stalled, and a fragile cease-fire is teetering on the brink of collapse—exactly the kind of mess that could make a short war drag into a strategic disaster.

“Bad So Far” vs. “Worse to Come”

This approach ignores the principles of effective negotiation outlined in Getting to Yes, a staple in diplomatic training

Applying this to Trump’s foreign policy regarding Iran, especially the prospect of introducing ground troops, the analogy suggests that facing “death” in the movie scenario could be framed as a devastating regional conflict, immense human suffering, and a significant blow to US strategic interests and global stability, mirroring the inevitability and severity of the movie character’s fate, but on a geopolitical scale

The “worse to come” option exposes the potential for a full-scale ground war, followed by the crash of the world’s economy. Foreign wars have historically not worked out well for the United States. The option of “declaring victory and leaving with Trump’s proverbial tail between his legs” may be the best option for the world in general and the US in particular.

Even if a US military victory could be achieved, it would be nominal or fleeting, followed either by a difficult withdrawal, or a prolonged guerilla war, much like the Russian character in the movie who was facing either a quick death or prolonged torture.

Here are just some of Trump’s failures so far, domestic ones too:

1) A failed trade war with China

2) Annexation threats towards Greenland that reaped only indignation and ended in backtracking

3) Pressure on Canada that led to Mark Carney’s victory and brought Ottawa closer to Beijing

4) Congress’s decision to limit the White House’s ability to withdraw troops from Europe

5) The Supreme Court ruling that overturned the tariff war

6) His humiliation in ‘I’ ran, and it is growing!

7) And of course – the Epstein files

8) Relations with NATO being strained to the point of breaking

If history is any indication of things to come, the combination of bad timing, mixed messages, and coercive measures has so far sabotaged prospects for meaningful US–Iran talks in Pakistan and increased the danger the ceasefire will collapse—and by design!

Meanwhile, Trump is crashing and burning not only in terms of foreign policy, but now has fired another woman from his cabinet, on the domestic front. The first to go, on March 5, was ex-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Then, less than a month later, Trump ousted former Attorney General Pam Bondi. Today, April 21, 2026, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer announced her resignation. The knives also seem out for Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence.

Never Ending War as a GREAT Distraction

So now he needs a great distraction, if not a victory in Iran, perhaps one in Cuba or some even greater distraction, to dial down the heat. The failure to negotiate without any desire for a good outcome, in at least to go through the motions, is most revealing. As of April 21, all efforts to negotiate face-to-face peace between the US and Iran remained unclear amid confusion over the US negotiators’ plans and uncertainty over whether Tehran would agree to take part.

Iran, with good justification, questions the good faith and real intentions of the US to come to the table with any actual intention of ending the war, as the US only wants to show to a domestic audience that it is the “shifty Iranians” who are spoiling a fair a and lasting deal.

Finger Pointing but the truth is clear!

Despite repeated public claims of progress, US-led efforts to broker a ceasefire and broader peace talks have so far failed to produce a durable breakthrough, or any breakthrough at all. Both sides continue to accuse each other of violating the fragile truce, while fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. If diplomacy continues to stall, that alone will stand as a significant policy failure, regardless of how either side seeks to frame it politically.

Crying Uncle!

It does not help with Trump making public statements of no compromise until a “deal” with the Iranians is about to happen, and how the Iranians are begging to negotiate does not help, which undermines trust and any semblance of legitimate leverage in the process.

It is almost certain that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are involved in any official negotiations for the purpose of making sure that no deals are made. They are most certainly Israeli assets and know who is buttering their bread.

Steve Witkoff | U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East

Witkoff is the quintessential Trump’s “closest buddy”—a billionaire real estate developer with zero prior diplomatic experience but too close for comfort to the President. Now he is tasked with handling the most radioactive files in the administration, including the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Iran nuclear standoff. The fact that he is the face of “deal-making” is nothing but a sick joke. In his world, a negotiation is only successful if the other side folds completely.

Jared Kushner | Special Envoy for Peace Missions

Perhaps one of the few, if not the only, close members of the family that Trump can trust, he has played a shadow-diplomacy role for years; Kushner was officially named Special Envoy earlier this year. Having brokered the Abraham Accords, he is the administration’s ideological anchor in the region. His role in the Islamabad talks is to ensure that any potential “breakthrough” aligns with the administration’s broader vision—one that prioritizes strategic alignment with traditional allies, demands of donors, and this leaves little room for Tehran’s current red lines. In other words, he is there to do Netanyahu’s bidding.

To the administration’s detractors, these two aren’t negotiators so much as “enforcers” and Israeli assets. They have extensive private business ties to the region, and see eye to eye with Trump, and everything has a payoff. It is clear, and even Trump has signaled that the purpose of the Islamabad talks isn’t to find a middle ground but to dictate the terms of surrender. If their goal is to ensure “no deals are made” unless they are entirely on Washington’s terms, they are the perfect hitmen for the job.

It is a similar situation to the Trump administration’s approach to the so-called peace talks regarding Ukraine, where the losing side seems to think it can dictate terms to the side that is winning.

Diplomatic optimism fades

Any veneer of optimism around U.S.-led peace efforts with Iran is quickly washing away. Progress has given way to entrenched gridlock, by design, and the fragile, frequently violated ceasefire looks less like a path to peace than a temporary pause in conflict.

Islamabad demonstrates the divide between Tehran and Washington is widening, and with JD Vance just walking away. Disputes over Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz have hardened into non-negotiable positions. Tehran refuses to negotiate under a U.S. naval blockade, blackmail, while President Donald Trump insists he faces “no pressure whatsoever” to ease sanctions—further undermining incentives for compromise.

The result is a volatile mix of mixed messaging and saber-rattling, pointing to a broader breakdown in negotiations. With the ceasefire fraying—including in Lebanon—and Islamabad talks weighed down by unrealistic preconditions, renewed conflict appears increasingly likely. What the administration frames as resolve instead reflects stagnation, raising the risk of wider instability and economic fallout.

Getting to Yes!

Critics argue this approach ignores the principles of effective negotiation outlined in Getting to Yes, a staple in diplomatic training. Its focus on mutual gains, trust, and interests over rigid positions stands in stark contrast to current U.S. strategy—one that appears to prioritize pressure over progress.

Trump and his backers want to keep up the “maximum pressure,” and without clear off-ramps. Thus, Washington has engineered conditions for assured failure and painted itself into a corner. The result is a chaotic, fatal cocktail of mixed messaging and saber-rattling that shows a total breakdown in diplomacy.

What Donald Trump and his team, including the official US State Department, are practicing under the guise of diplomacy falls face flat in terms of making a win-win deal and does not even come anywhere close to leading down the proverbial road of good intentions.

 

Henry Kamens, columnist and expert on Central Asia and the Caucasus

Counter Punch: China and Russia in the Persian Gulf. Eve Ottenberg: 21-04-2026: **************

 April 21, 2026

China and Russia in the Persian Gulf

Eve Ottenberg

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The Persian Gulf at night from the ISS. Photograph Source: NASA – Public Domain

When the Chinese tanker, Rich Starry, defied the U.S. blockade April 14 by going through the Strait of Hormuz, it redefined the blockade. This easy transit may have had something to do with a statement, the day before, by China’s defense minister, Admiral Dong Jun, at the beginning of the U.S. blockade: “Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor them and expect others not to meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”

Although the U.S.’s, under Donald “Steal the Oil” Trump, sole purpose seems to be to corner the planet’s energy market (vide Trump’s Venezuelan escapades and more recent Iranian ones) this program has several fatal flaws, most especially “upending an emerging détente with China,” as the New York Times put it April 14 and, even more inanely, fails to take into account that U.S. global oil strangulation has boosted Russian energy profits into the stratosphere, so that, if Moscow wants, it can sell discounted oil to Beijing. Oh, and also, China sends its solar tech all over the world, recently, most notably, to Cuba, where U.S. secretary of state Marco “Regime Change” Rubio convinced el jefe to choke off all energy supplies, something at which the Kremlin, being blockade-averse for historical reasons rooted in the horrifying siege of Leningrad, responded by sending a huge tanker loaded with oil to Havana. And another is on the way.

Meanwhile in mid-April, the Iran Observer announced on X: “China Warships in Hormuz!” This post included photos of PLA Navy ships, though of course they could have been anywhere. But if the Iran Observer is accurate, that may account for the ease with which on April 14, the Chinese tanker and three other Iran-linked ships transited the Strait. Or that could have had something to do with the six submarines, two nuclear, that Moscow plunked down near the Strait of Hormuz, back on April 5. Whatever the cause, China and Russia are in the Person Gulf, but both they and western media apparently wish to be very discreet about it – though for nearly opposite reason. The Chinese and the Russians because they do everything they can discreetly, while western media, on the other hand, wants to hype U.S. power, and stories about the Eurasian military giants’ presence in the Persian Gulf don’t do that.

How much money is Moscow making in the oil trade thanks to Trump’s ill-considered and barbaric blockade? $117.46 per barrel as of April 14 – a big surge caused largely by Don Coreleone in the white house throttling Hormuz. Prior to February 28, when Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu took it into their heads to attack Iran, Russian Urals crude went for $57 to $58 per barrel. Over the course of early March, the price spiked, and has been spiking ever since, so that Moscow is now making money hand over fist. So’s Tehran. And just in case the Trump dimwits’ plan to starve China of oil actually starts to work, the Kremlin has jumped in, as yours truly predicted recently in these pages and, despite its recent cutoff of all gasoline exports, offered to lend China a helping hand. “Russia can plug any oil supply gap and help China…withstand U.S. ‘aggressive adventures,’ Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said,” RT reported April 15. “Lavrov’s remarks came after U.S. Treasury Secretary [and primo airhead] Scott Bessent warned on Tuesday that China is ‘not going to be able to get their oil…not Iranian oil.” Bessent also boasted, erroneously (surprise!) that Beijing’s ships would not pass through Hormuz, an idiocy that may have prompted Trump’s proclamation the next day that he was opening the Strait “for China.”

In fact, Trump announced that he would “PERMANENTLY reopen” the waterway “after Beijing supposedly agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” RT reported April 15. Note the word “supposedly” in this headline. As a regular reader of RT, I can tell you that that is the first time in some years I have seen that word in a headline. So the take from official Moscow might be skepticism? Ya think? And don’t you think Moscow has a more informed view of Beijing’s activities and needs in the Persian Gulf than Trump? Well, you could say many people do and you’d be correct, but the Kremlin especially. Russia, China and Iran have an alliance, the genuine article. Not just some marriage of convenience, like the deformities we see between the U.S. and its proxies. The notion that Chinese president Xi Jinping promised Donald Trump to stop arming a vital ally, with whom China has a relationship of alive, tested loyalty and to whom China has given planeloads of armament as that ally was beaten bloody by Israel and the U.S., and as that ally fought back valiantly, with China and Russia at its side – well, that notion is preposterous.

Maybe the hilarious internet memes about blockading a blockade shamed Trump, or maybe the brainless apercus of Scott Bessent and voluble nitwit Florida Republican senator Rick Scott, who announced on a talk show that he was so keen on busting up China’s economy that he didn’t care if the blockade caused high prices here – maybe the nonpareil observations of these morons about their comfort with Trump causing a worldwide depression alarmed the president. Or maybe he found even more alarming Iran’s minatory statement that it is waiting for the ceasefire to end before making “the blockade extremely painful for the U.S.,” according to a military source quoted by Iran Observer on X April 15. “All imports and exports in the region will be banned. Ports throughout the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman will be targeted. The Red Sea will also be blockaded, and experience shows that the U.S. Navy will not be able to reopen it.”

Well, that’s enough to sober up even the most intoxicated narcissist. Because yes, that’s exactly what experience shows, namely, when the Houthis shut down the Red Sea in solidarity with the bombed, poisoned, injured, traumatized, destitute, murdered and homeless people of Gaza, there wasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell of the U.S. navy or Israel’s mesmerizing tech reopening it. And they tried. But alea iacta est. Geography and Houthi grit stumped the American/Israeli aggressors, who, it turns out, are much better at slaughtering civilians, firebombing cities and torturing the next generation – as Israel has done in Gaza, where its military pollutants and chemicals, to which pregnant women have been exposed, have led to a huge cohort of infants born with agonizing deformities. That’s certainly what Israel is good at, and the U.S. is no slouch in that department either. So maybe Trump had some vague sense of his military’s limitations and what these deficits mean, namely that when faced with actual, competent, well-armed, highly committed troops, failure looms as a distinct possibility. Much easier to blow up a girl’s school and prestigious universities in Iran or to incinerate hospitals in Gaza.

In four weeks, Trump sojourns to Beijing, a journey most portentous for U.S./China relations, the American economy, the Empire’s continued global reach and for the boss of bosses personally. Suffice it to say, if Trump flubs this, due to his half-wit underlings’ or moronic members of the uniparty’s oracular pronouncements on the wretched U.S. blockade of Hormuz, he thoroughly tanks his “legacy.” And that legacy lately skates on thin ice. There’s Venezuela – truthfully or not, he gets to claim a big win there. There’s Gaza, where he can say at least he reduced the blood-letting, unlike Genocide Joe Biden, who was apparently happy to let the Israelis turn the entire enclave into a humongous crypt. But that’s about it. If he permits Bessent, Scott, two-faced J.D. Vance with his contortions about the spirituality of war or any of their ilk bust up his chance to make nice in Beijing, there goes the Trump political brand, up in smoke.

So the Trump/Xi confab is stupendously significant, especially for Trump. But the Iran War gums up the works. Assuming the white house honcho truly understands this, and there are omens that he does, he would want to wind down hostilities pronto – something which, in fact, he’s been trying to do for some time. Somebody should have told him this misbegotten war entailed fighting the Russia/China/Iran alliance – but even if they had, he likely would have proceeded with his arrant nonsense anyway, because no one among the nincompoops and cuckoo birds he’s surrounded with had any appreciation of the depth, tenacity, intelligence and sterling commitment of the Eurasian union. Indeed, few of our educated elites appreciated it either, due to the pervasive vapidities of western media. So unlucky Trump rushed in where angels fear to tread, only to wake up later, horrified at what he had done and desperate to undo it. I don’t say this much about things Trump, but in this case, we better hope he succeeds.

Eve Ottenberg is a novelist and journalist. Her latest novel is Old Man Alone. She can be reached at her website.