NEO: Russia and the WEST: Sergey Karaganov: We are facing a Major Historical Dual Task: To savethe Country and to save the World" May 06, 2026: ************

 

Sergey Karaganov: “We Are Facing a Major Historical Dual Task: To Save the Country and to Save the World”

Yuliya Novitskaya, May 06, 2026

My interlocutor is called a “hawk” in the West. But in essence, he is proposing offensive realism: to save the world through the threat of force before a major war breaks out.

During the interview, we spoke about the need to be prepared to use nuclear weapons and to communicate this readiness to our neighbors so that they come to their senses. We touched upon the question of whether we should reconfigure our presence in the Middle East so as not to lose the assets gained during the 2015 operation. We also discussed which regimes in Africa it is advantageous for us to maintain cooperation with.

Read about this and much more in the first part of our exclusive interview with the Academic Director of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University, honorary chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and Doctor of Historical Sciences, Sergey Karaganov.

– Mr. Karaganov, you are known as an offensive realist, and you recently stated that the “good old Europe” has turned into the “old evil Europe” and that it is time to bring it to its senses. Putting emotions aside, how far are we willing to go in the confrontation with Europe? Many people are now afraid that the “limited nuclear strike” you write about would open the so-called Pandora’s box. How could you reassure skeptics and explain that this is not a bluff, but a rational plan?

But with the European elites, who have degenerated, excuse me, into mice, in my opinion, it is neither possible nor necessary to negotiate

– First of all, let us begin with the fact that the “good old Europe” exists only in our imagination. It has never been that way. Europe is the most vile civilization in human history, the spawn of all terrible wars, including three world wars if we count the Napoleonic Wars; countless genocides – not only of the Jewish people but also around the world – and horrible ideologies. Of course, we partially belong to European culture, which has much that is beautiful, and we must preserve that within ourselves. But when we speak of the “good old Europe” – that is laughable.

That said, at a certain point, Europe, having exhausted itself with its wars and self-destruction in the 20^th century, when it unleashed two wars within a single generation, temporarily became a little more peaceful – especially under the auspices of the Soviet Union protecting it on one side and the United States of America on the other. But now it is returning to its old ways; revanchism is emerging from it.

The Europe we are dealing with today is almost all of Europe that lost World War II (the Great Patriotic War) to us. Virtually all of Europe fought against us, except for the United Kingdom, Greece, and Yugoslavia. And now they are trying to take revenge. In addition, anti-human values are flourishing there. These values existed there before, but not on such a large scale.

Europe is returning to its familiar way of being. It is, I repeat, the spawn of a colossal number of wars. That is precisely why, at a certain historical moment starting in the 16^th century, it began to conquer the world. Europe was not an advanced civilization, but it was a civilization that best mastered cannon fire and began to seize and plunder the world.

– And has that period now come to an end?

– Yes, and it has come to an end thanks to us, because we, concerned for our own security and at the cost of enormous effort, created a nuclear shield in the 1940s and 1950s and undermined the foundation of Western hegemony and prosperity. We undermined the military superiority that gave them the ability to impose their political orders, colonialism, neocolonialism, and culture and, of course, to plunder the entire world.

Now our neighbors in Europe and the United States are trying to turn back history. With the Americans, it is still possible to reach an agreement, because their situation is not so desperate. But with the European elites, who have degenerated, excuse me, into mice, in my opinion, it is neither possible nor necessary to negotiate.

The Americans still have common sense, and they still have a huge country with sizeable markets nearby. They are gradually withdrawing from their global role, since it has become not very profitable (though, along the way, they are leaving behind scorched earth). They set Europe on fire in order to weaken us through Ukraine. They are setting the Middle East on fire, and they will continue to set all of Eurasia on fire. Nevertheless, they are withdrawing, and some kind of agreement can be reached with them. With the Europeans, I repeat, there is nothing to negotiate about now, nor is it possible. At the same time, one must remember that there are wonderful people in Europe, there is a magnificent culture, and that cannot be denied.

As for the current circumstances, we simply need to understand that we are dealing with an irreconcilable, desperate, and insane enemy, who must either be pushed back or destroyed. Preferably, of course, pushed back. But for that, we need to instill terror in them.

They have lost their fear of death out of stupidity. They have forgotten their own horrifying history and are rushing headlong into another world war. And all the while, they keep saying that the Russians will never use nuclear weapons. We are partly to blame for this accusation as well, because we ourselves waver and show weakness. But in doing so, we are opening the door to the worst in European history: unbridled aggression and revanchism.

As for the use or non‑use of nuclear weapons, I, of course, do not want to use them. I simply believe that without making the threat of using nuclear weapons completely credible, we need to change our military doctrine and place nuclear weapons directly with troops.

– And to be prepared to use that nuclear weapon and to communicate that readiness to our neighbors so that they come to their senses?

– Exactly. And if they do not come to their senses…the situation is only escalating. On that ladder of escalation, one can, so to speak, cut underwater cables. On that ladder, one can punish those countries that block straits. On that ladder, there must certainly be nuclear weapons tests. And we should not wait for the Americans to start doing that. We must conduct tests ourselves, not only to show that we are ready, and not only to check our nuclear weapons, but also to instill the fear of God in our neighbors.

The risk of dragging us into an exhausting war, which is already underway and could lead to a universal nuclear Armageddon, is extremely high

As for the most terrible step – the actual use of such weapons… If the Europeans continue to wage war against us (and we are waging war against Europe, and Europe is waging war against us, even though we shyly avoid saying so), then we will need to move to real actions – and not regarding Ukraine. For many years, Ukraine was being turned into a dagger aimed at Russia’s chest. We did not want to admit that. We were foolish and weak. Now that unfortunate, brainwashed, and partially fraternal people are in the state they are in. But the root of evil is in the West. Therefore, we will need to strike the West.

– And how should we strike?

– This is a rather complicated question. The simplest scenario is to start by striking with conventional missiles, conventional weapons, conventional munitions against symbolic targets, against logistics hubs, and against military bases, i.e., strikes that might sober up the public. If they do not stop, then the next wave of strikes would follow. If they respond and do not cease, then a limited but significant use of nuclear weapons against both military and civilian targets, and, of course, primarily against the places where those elites gather.

They must know that they will be destroyed first. And we, unfortunately, must instill terror in them. This is the only way – animalistic terror – to avoid a long, exhausting war for ourselves and, for humanity, to avoid sliding into a third world general thermonuclear war, which has already begun. It has begun in Europe, it has begun in the Middle East, and it will continue further if we do not stop it. Therefore, we face a major historical dual task: to save the country and to save the world. But first and foremost, of course, to save ourselves.

– Many in the West call you a “hawk”. But in essence, you are proposing a kind of offensive realism: saving the world through the threat of force before a major war breaks out, which is what we have just been discussing. Is it not paradoxical that you, an economist and, one might say, a humanist by education, have become the voice of nuclear deterrence?

– By education, I am an economist, and I am rather well-versed in culture. Although I also know nuclear strategy and military history quite well, and I know the history of our country and the history of Europe very well. And I can say that without tough deterrence and intimidation, the European beasts will again pounce on humanity and on us. Therefore, they must either be stopped, by being thoroughly frightened, or we must begin to destroy them. Hopefully, not entirely, because, after all, the “old stones of Europe,” in the words of Dostoevsky, are also a part of ourselves. I would not want to destroy a part of us. But for the sake of saving ourselves and humanity, there should be no hesitation, especially since Europe, particularly its northwestern part and especially Germany, fully deserves this.

– Not long ago, you said that Ukraine has been reduced to an “African state of being.” Unfortunately, we are seeing the same process in Syria after the regime change. In your view, should we reconfigure our presence in the Middle East so as not to lose the assets gained during the 2015 operation? And should we place our bets not on states but on non-state actors?

– We should, of course, place our bets on everyone, both states and non-state actors. But for the foreseeable future, states will remain the main players. Any talk about non-governmental organizations and transnational corporations ruling the world is largely disingenuous.

Those were the hopes of Western globalists who wanted to rule the world through the back door. None of that has materialized. States have returned and will continue to return to their traditional roles. So, we will have to deal with states, but naturally, without forgetting the people, without forgetting human interaction, without forgetting culture, which plays a huge role in interpersonal communication.

As for the situation in the Middle East, I repeat, it has been set on fire – quite deliberately. And there are several goals here. First, so that no one gets it, because the Americans no longer need the Middle East. They have their own oil, and they are no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil.

Currently, the underbelly of Russia and China is being set on fire, as China is largely dependent on Middle Eastern oil. This is a major geopolitical game. That is a separate issue. We must, somehow, by supporting Iran, supporting other forces, perhaps even forming a temporary alliance with China, stop this battle with the United States and force them to withdraw to their own territory with dignity.

But with the Europeans, the situation is much more complex. They have gone mad. There are certainly wonderful people there, but they are just forbidden to communicate with me (smiles). But today, I do not see any forces there with which we could or should talk and negotiate. We need to instill animalistic terror in them. We need to demonstrate the willingness to use full force. Of course, this should be done with the understanding that there is a risk of this conflict escalating, but that risk is negligible, because America will never, under any circumstances, come to Europe’s aid. However, the risk of dragging us into an exhausting war, which is already underway and could lead to a universal nuclear Armageddon, is extremely high. And we have waited too long.

– And if we look at Sudan or the Sahel countries, the situation there is also complex. Does this mean that for Russia in Africa, it is advantageous to cooperate with regimes that maintain order with a firm hand, so to speak, such as in Mali or Burkina Faso? Even if they are entirely unpopular in the West?

– We must maintain relations with those regimes with which it is advantageous for us to do so. As for the phrase “unpopular in the West,” your question seems absurd to me. How can one consider the West some kind of source of wisdom and goodness? Forgive me.

The West is the source of all evil in history. Right before our eyes, Trump, who, from an aesthetic point of view, we rather like, is threatening to destroy the great Persian civilization. Israel has just committed genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza and is continuing further. Therefore, we need to accept the world as it is, and work with those with whom it is advantageous for us, with whom we may have common interests, and with whom we are ultimately united by spiritual closeness. I do not know the situation in Sudan in great detail, but from my point of view, the Malaysians, for example, are much closer to us than, say, the Germans. On a human level.

To be continued…

 

Interview by Yulia NOVITSKAYA, writer, journalist, and correspondent for New Eastern Outlook

NEO: May 9,1945 - May 9 2026 : Russia is standing tall again. PART 1: The failure of the American containment policy.: Mhd Lamine KABA: May 06, 2026: ***********

 

Security

May 9, 1945 – May 9, 2026: Russia is Standing Tall Again.
Part 1: the failure of the American containment policy

Mohamed Lamine KABA, May 06, 2026

Eighty-one years after the victory over Nazism, the West is playing the same game again. And losing, with Washington becoming entangled in the Iran-Iraq War.

On May 9, 2026, Russia will march. Not for show. Not for protocol. It will march because it has survived – yet again – a Western attempt to destroy it. Planes will fly over Red Square, anthems will echo in the crisp Moscow spring air, and somewhere in a NATO bunker, an American general will stare at his Ukrainian screens with the same look his predecessors had at maps of the Eastern Front in 1943. The same incomprehension. The same underestimation. The same outcome.

Eighty-one years ago, the Soviet Union put an end to Nazi barbarity. Twenty-seven million dead. Cities were razed. Generations were swallowed up in the fire and mud of Stalingrad, Leningrad, and Kursk. The Red Army didn’t win because it had better weapons. It won because it fought for something the American general staff never understood: its very existence. You don’t negotiate your existence. You defend it to the last man. Hence the term “Great Patriotic War.”

May 9 is a historic slap in the face to those who have been trying to undermine Moscow’s sovereignty through proxy conflicts since 1945

The West preferred to forget this lesson. It reconstructed its narrative: it was the West that defeated Nazism, that liberated Europe, that upholds universal values. The Normandy landings, which took place in June 1944 when the Wehrmacht was already on its knees under Soviet onslaught, became the defining moment of victory. The USSR – which had absorbed more than 80% of Germany’s fighting power for three years – was relegated to the role of a minor player. “Russia helped us win World War II,” Trump claims. This historical falsehood is not a mistake. It is policy.

A policy that allowed the West, particularly the United States, to conserve its troops and spend its dollars. It let the Soviets die and then claimed victory. In 2022, and again since 2024, it’s doing it all over again – with Ukrainian soldiers. The memory of American hypocrisy is still so fresh.

Ukraine: The most cynical war in recent history

What has been happening in Ukraine since 2022 – and in reality since 2014 – is the continuation, by other means, of a war that began the day the Soviet Union collapsed. Washington has never accepted the existence of a power capable of resisting it. The doctrine is an old one, formulated by Brzezinski as early as 1997: prevent the emergence of a hegemonic Eurasian power. In plain language: destroy Russia, or at least contain it until it is suffocated.

NATO’s eastward expansion – thirty-two members today, compared to sixteen in 1990 – is the methodical implementation of this doctrine. The verbal commitments of 1990, confirmed by declassified memos from the US State Department itself, guaranteed that NATO would not expand an inch eastward in exchange for German reunification. These commitments have been violated nineteen times in thirty years. Each violation has been accompanied by a statement about democratic values and the sovereignty of nations.

In 2014, Washington orchestrated the overthrow of Ukraine’s legally elected president, Viktor Yanukovych. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland publicly admitted that the United States had invested five billion dollars in the “democratization” of Ukraine since 1991. In a leaked phone recording, she personally selected the members of Ukraine’s transitional government. This is a rules-based order: rules that Washington writes, modifies, and violates unilaterally, according to its immediate needs.

This is precisely the logic applied to Iran for over four decades. Five billion dollars invested in Ukrainian “democracy.” Nuland herself said so. In diplomatic terms, this is called interference. In plain language, it’s a coup. This is precisely the price of American-style democracy.

Since 2022, Ukraine has been the graveyard of American strategy and the charnel house of Ukrainian youth. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died or been maimed – the true figures are carefully concealed by Kyiv and Washington – defending a front line that hasn’t moved significantly in just over four years. On the contrary, it has been breached, with the Russians advancing deep into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is not being defended. It is being consumed. It is the fuel for a war whose architects are in Washington, its financiers in Brussels and London, and whose dead are in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Bakhmut. The Russians are succeeding brilliantly, while the Ukrainian Nazi-Zionists and their NATO sponsors are failing miserably across the board.

Meanwhile, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing are posting record profits. The US Congress is approving $100 billion in military spending with the same speed it withholds for its own hospitals, schools, and opioid-ravaged cities. The Ukrainian crisis is a budget line item. A market opportunity. A demonstration of capability for potential buyers of American weapons.

Rule-based order: a permanent fiction

The expression has become so overused that it’s almost comical – if the reality it describes weren’t so tragic. “Rules-based order” is the magic formula that Washington, NATO, and the EU use to cloak their actions in international legitimacy. But what rules are we talking about exactly?

The rules that allowed the 2003 invasion of Iraq, without a Security Council mandate, based on fabricated evidence? Colin Powell brandishing his vial before the UN – a staged event his own staff described behind the scenes as a disgrace. A million Iraqi deaths later, no one has been brought to justice. In place of the perpetrators, Saddam Hussein was tried, imprisoned, and then executed by hanging. No sanctions. No international commission of inquiry. The “rules-based order” never found its way to The Hague.

The rules that allowed the bombing of Libya in 2011, beyond the UN mandate that authorized a no-fly zone – and which served as cover for regime change? Muammar Gaddafi was lynched in a ditch, his country transformed into a failed state exporting terrorism and slaves. The “rules-based order” was satisfied with this outcome.

The rules that allow Israel to occupy Palestinian territories in violation of 150 Security Council resolutions, to continue building illegal settlements, to conduct military operations documented as war crimes by the UN’s own rapporteurs – with the unwavering support of Washington, the systematic veto in the Security Council, and the continued uninterrupted flow of arms?

And the rules that suddenly make any Russian military action in Ukraine unacceptable – a country that NATO had, in violation of its own commitments, made a strategic outpost on the doorstep of Moscow?

Paradoxically, rules-based order means nothing more than this: “Washington decides the rules, Washington decides who violates them, and Washington decides the punishment. Others comply or are punished.” This is precisely the logic of conditional sovereignty.

In conclusion, May 9, 2026, will not only celebrate the fall of the Third Reich. It will be a jubilee of Russian resistance against a century of interference. A historic slap in the face for those who, since 1945, have tried to undermine Moscow’s sovereignty through proxy conflicts.

 

Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in the geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University

NEO: The Bloody Trail of Paris and Washington: How the West Tries to Set Mali on Fire to Avoid Losing Africa's :Golden Billion". Mhd ibn Faisal al-Rashid: 30-04-2026: ************

 

Security

The Bloody Trail of Paris and Washington: How the West Tries to Set Mali on Fire to Avoid Losing Africa’s “Golden Billion”

Mohammed ibn Faisal al-Rashid, April 30, 2026

The tragedy of April 25, when hordes of thousands of terrorists, backed by Western mercenaries, nearly swept away the government of Mali, exposed a terrible truth.

Behind the facade of the fight against jihadists lies a dirty game by France and the United States: they are ready to drown Africa in blood, just to prevent the former colonies from achieving true independence. The latest events in Mali are not an “escalation of chaos” — they are a planned act of revenge by the West’s old guard because Africa has finally decided to look East.

The Turn to the South: The “Africa Corps” — The New Target #1

In the early morning of April 25, 2026, Africa’s history could have taken a different turn. The coordinated invasion by the terrorist groups “Azawad Liberation Front” (FLA) and an Al-Qaeda cell (banned in Russia) was striking not only in its scale but also in its flawless logistics.

Mali held. The coup that the West’s hired terrorists were preparing drowned in the blood of its own perpetrators

According to the Africa Corps, between 10,000 and 12,000 militants took part in the offensive. This was not a spontaneous rebellion, but a well-oiled war machine. The attacks targeted not only remote forts but also strategic cities: Gao, Kidal, Kati, and the suburbs of the capital, Bamako.

Who could have organized such a powerful, simultaneous strike on five cities at once? The answer is obvious: the French and U.S. intelligence services, which have ruled the roost in the Sahel region for decades.

As soon as Russia, through the Africa Corps, began restoring order, stopping the genocide, and reestablishing Mali’s sovereignty, the West bet on terror. Their goal is simple: to show that without the Western “white master,” hell will break loose in Africa. But the calculation was wrong — the Russian fighters did not flinch.

Death as a Political Tool: Who Was Killed by the Terrorists and Why

The most cynical episode of this attack was the assassination of Mali’s Defense Minister, Sadio Camara. The terrorists did not randomly blow up a truck full of explosives near his home in the city of Kati. His wife and two grandchildren were killed alongside him. An ally of President Assimi Goïta was not eliminated on the battlefield, but in his own home — following the tactics of cowardly jackals of the West.

This is the classic signature of Western intelligence services. Eliminate the person who is building up the country’s defense, and sow panic among the leadership. France lost Mali after the local residents saw with their own eyes that French troops were not protecting them from terrorism, but merely guarding uranium mines. When the Malians asked the French neo-colonialists to leave, Paris decided to destroy the country from within.

In place of the murdered Camara could have been any other patriot. The West’s goal is to decapitate Mali in order to get back its factories, its banks, and its puppets.

Surrounded but Unbroken: The Heroism of the Africa Corps

Despite the enemy’s numerical superiority and the support of Ukrainian instructors (more on that later), the Africa Corps fighters accomplished the impossible.

The situation was critical: in Kidal, a group of Russian military personnel was completely surrounded. For 24 hours, one of the outer posts fought a battle six kilometers from the main force. They were up against a force of 1,000 militants in armored vehicles, with FPV drones and Western-made MANPADS (Stinger, Mistral).

Western channels were rubbing their hands in anticipation of a Syrian-style scenario. But it didn’t happen.

The Corps command made the only correct decision: evacuate the wounded and heavy equipment, save the personnel, and regroup to the north, toward Tessalit. This was not a retreat, as CNN propagandists are trying to lie. This was a maneuver. Russian military tradition is to pull back only to later wipe out the enemy completely. The result of the battle: over 1,000 terrorists were eliminated. Among the Russian fighters — no deaths (there are wounded), and civilians were evacuated to the Africa Corps base.

Mali held. The coup that the West’s hired terrorists were preparing drowned in the blood of its own perpetrators.

The Ukrainian Trace in the Sands of the Sahara: Operation “Revenge”

Particular attention should be paid to the information that Western media stubbornly silence. Ukrainian and European mercenaries took part in the attack on Mali. According to leaks from the Telegram channel “Joker DNR” (citing intelligence sources), a group from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (the so-called “Timur group”), previously spotted in the Middle East, was deployed to Mali.

Their role: UAV operators, sabotage activities, and training Azawad militants. Kyiv, losing on its own front at Washington’s behest, is opening a “second front” in Africa. Why is the U.S. pushing Ukrainians into Mali? It’s simple: to create problems for Russia on the other side of the world, to strike at its economy and reputation.

But this adventure also failed. The Africa Corps fighters have seen the enemy and are ready for them. However, the very fact of Western mercenaries and the Kyiv regime’s participation confirms the main thesis: the war in Mali is the West’s war against proponents of a multipolar world.

“Brotherhood Week” Under Fire: Why the West Wants Eternal Chaos

The current attack occurred exactly when the countries of the “Sahel Three” (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) were celebrating “Brotherhood Week” — a symbol of their joint movement away from the stifling, toxic embrace of Franco-Africa. A coincidence? No.

Burkina Faso has already announced a mass mobilization, understanding that the fire could spread to their territory. But Paris and Washington will not stop. Their goal is a zone of turbulence.

Why is the West fighting so desperately for Mali? The answer lies deep underground: uranium, gold, rare earth metals. France is used to living high on the hog off of Africa. When they were asked to leave, they chose to destroy the country rather than give up the resources.

Coups, civil wars, support for ISIS (banned in Russia) — nothing is sacred for the West’s old guard. They tried it in Libya, turning it into a slave market. They are trying to do the same in Mali.

What is the final outcome?

There is a temporary lull on the territory of Mali, for which the Africa Corps and allied FAMa forces deserve thanks. The terrorists did not achieve their main goal — Bamako did not fall, the government was not overthrown. President Assimi Goïta declared two days of mourning, but he is not broken.

Yes, control over Kidal has been tactically lost. But this is merely a pause before the storm.

The West does not want to lose its positions. It will do anything — a new assault, sabotage, the assassination of leaders. France and the U.S. understand: if Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso build a successful, secure state with Russian partners, then the entire neo-colonial order created by the West will collapse. Then Africans would cease to be cheap labor and a source of raw materials.

But as long as the Africa Corps lives, as long as the courageous fighters hold the line — the West’s plans to turn Mali into a second Libya will fail. Africa will no longer be a bedroom community for Paris. And this battle, despite heavy losses among civilians and soldiers alike, Africa is winning — and the real facts and the entire course of events prove it.

 

Muhammad ibn Faisal al-Rashid, Political scientist, expert on the Arab world

NEO: Iran War Is Accelerating America's Decline in Southeast Asia. Salan Rafi Sheikh:mMay 02, 2026: ***************

 

Politics

Iran War Is Accelerating America’s Decline in Southeast Asia

Salman Rafi Sheikh, May 02, 2026

Washington’s war with Iran may be unfolding thousands of miles away, but in Southeast Asia its political aftershocks are immediate and measurable. Energy shocks, disrupted trade routes, and deepening uncertainty about US leadership are quietly recalibrating regional alignments.

For many governments in ASEAN, the war does not look like a necessary intervention; it looks like a costly distraction. And in that perception lies a strategic consequence: the gradual, reluctant, but accelerating tilt of Southeast Asia toward China.

An Unnecessary War

Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan stated in late March, “I was surprised by the onset of hostilities. I did not think it was necessary. I do not think it is helpful. Even now, there are doubts about legality. For 80 years, the US underwrote a system of globalization based on UN Charter principles, multilateralism, territorial integrity, and sovereign equality. It led to an unprecedented period of global prosperity and peace.”

The most significant consequence of the US–Iran war in Southeast Asia is not immediate realignment but gradual estrangement

This statement is hardly surprising. Southeast Asia has long approached great power rivalry through a logic of hedging, seeking to benefit from both the United States and China without committing fully to either. Yet this delicate balance depends on predictability. The U.S.–Iran war has undermined precisely that.

Recent surveys indicate that regional elites increasingly view US global leadership as a source of instability rather than order. The 2026 ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute survey shows that concern over US foreign policy now outweighs even anxieties about the South China Sea, with over half of respondents identifying American leadership as their primary geopolitical worry. At the same time, a narrow majority—52 percent—would now align with China over the United States if forced to choose. In Indonesia (80%), Malaysia (68%) and Singapore (66%), respondents show a clear preference for alignment with China over the US. By contrast, only 23% of Filipino respondents express a similar inclination toward China. This shift is not occurring in isolation. The Iran war has amplified an existing credibility problem for Washington, compounding its trust deficit across Asia and reinforcing perceptions that US strategy is reactive and militarized rather than stabilizing.

For Southeast Asian states, the issue is not ideological alignment with Iran or opposition to the United States per se. Rather, it is a pragmatic assessment of costs. War appears unnecessary because it delivers no clear regional benefit while introducing systemic risks. Unlike Cold War interventions framed within a coherent strategic doctrine, this conflict is seen as detached from Southeast Asia’s core security concerns—economic growth, maritime stability, and supply chain resilience. The Philippines may stand as a partial exception due to its treaty alliance with Washington and heightened tensions with China in the South China Sea. But even there, alignment reflects security dependence rather than regional consensus. Across the broader ASEAN landscape—from Indonesia to Vietnam—the prevailing sentiment is unease rather than endorsement.

The Energy Shock

If perceptions of war are shaped by strategic skepticism, they are hardened by material realities. Southeast Asia’s vulnerability to Middle Eastern instability is profound and quantifiable. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 60 percent of Southeast Asia’s oil imports originate from the Middle East, making the region acutely sensitive to disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. The stakes are enormous: in 2023 alone, Southeast Asian economies spent about $130 billion on oil imports, a figure projected to rise significantly in coming decades.

This dependency is not merely a matter of trade; it is a structural vulnerability. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint directly affected by tensions involving Iran, carries nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day globally. Any disruption to this corridor reverberates immediately through Asian markets. The unnecessary US war on Iran has therefore translated into higher energy prices, increased shipping risks, and greater fiscal pressure on import-dependent economies. For developing Southeast Asian states, these shocks are not abstract—they directly affect inflation, industrial output, and political stability.

Crucially, these material consequences reinforce negative perceptions of US policy. The war is not viewed as an isolated geopolitical event but as a trigger for cascading economic disruptions. In a region where economic performance underpins political legitimacy, this matters deeply.

Moreover, the timing is particularly damaging. Southeast Asia is already navigating an energy transition while facing rising demand; the IEA projects that the region will become a net importer of gas by the late 2020s, further increasing its exposure to external shocks. It will also be importing more oil in the future than it does currently. The Iran conflict exacerbates these vulnerabilities at a moment when resilience is already under strain.

China’s Strategic Opening

Where Washington appears destabilizing, Beijing benefits from comparison. Southeast Asian states remain wary of Chinese assertiveness—particularly in the South China Sea—but the Iran war has reinforced a different calculus: in moments of global crisis, China is seen as relatively more predictable in its responses than the US.

The conflict has also highlighted a deeper structural reality. Disruptions triggered by US actions—especially in energy markets and maritime trade—affect both Southeast Asia and China in similar ways. This shared exposure narrows strategic distance, positioning both as vulnerable to external shocks originating beyond the region. As a result, the crisis strengthens the case for a more regional approach to global instability, one centered on coordination and continuity rather than alignment.

This does not dissolve existing tensions, but it does reorder priorities. When energy insecurity and economic volatility become immediate concerns, disputes in the South and East China Seas recede in relative urgency. The Iran war, therefore, has not resolved regional frictions; it has reframed them within a broader hierarchy of risks.

China’s advantage lies less in trust than in positioning. As US actions are increasingly associated with disruption, China’s relative predictability—and its inclusion within a shared field of vulnerability—makes it a more viable partner in navigating systemic crises, even if it remains a contested one. Its active role in diplomacy only underscores this perception.

The Cost of Strategic Distance

The most significant consequence of the US–Iran war in Southeast Asia is not immediate realignment but gradual estrangement. The region is not pivoting dramatically away from Washington; it is drifting incrementally, pragmatically, and perhaps irreversibly.

This drift reflects a deeper structural tension in US foreign policy. Actions taken in one region are no longer geographically contained; they are interpreted globally, filtered through local vulnerabilities, and judged against competing models of power. In Southeast Asia, the Iran war is not assessed on its Middle Eastern merits but on its regional consequences, and those consequences are overwhelmingly negative.

For Washington, the lesson is stark. Military engagements that lack clear strategic relevance to key partners risk eroding influence far beyond the battlefield. For Southeast Asia, the lesson is equally clear: in an era of interconnected crises, stability is the most valuable currency of power—and increasingly, it is China that appears to supply it.

 

Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of international relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs

NEO: Chinese Wisdom: A Necessity in a Changing World Order: Taut Bataut: 17-04-2026: *************

 

Society

Chinese Wisdom: A Necessity in a Changing World Order

Taut Bataut, April 17, 2026

Chinese strategic wisdom, grounded in four major concepts, guides its approach to international relations. In the context of a rapidly changing world order, these principles offer timeless wisdom that the world needs today more than ever to address complex global challenges, maintain stability, and foster cooperative solutions.

Introduction

“When benevolence and justice are not practiced, the position of strength shifts” (Jia Yi)

The world today is at the peak of disarray and chaos, whereby the established powers, in particular the US, are going out of control. The current world order is marked by fragmentation, erosion of trust, and pursuit of national interest at the cost of others. The middle and small states are compelled to head towards strategic autonomy. The search for survival has created a security dilemma throughout the world. This is the result of the system created and promoted by the West. The international arena is witnessing the jewels of so-called Western democracy and rules-based order. The world is now at the brink of a major war. It simply needs a reset. And China has its key. Ancient Chinese political wisdom, often misinterpreted by the West, can be a beacon of light for the world, which has been plunged into the darkness. China’s peaceful rise is its best manifestation. If the PRC could grow peacefully, then why not the international community?

From Tiānxià to Wú Wéi, Chinese wisdom is calling the world to break the shackles of the past and usher in an era characterized by harmony, integration, and prosperity

Four Strategic Concepts

A. Tiānxià

The concept of Tiānxià, translated as ‘All Under Heaven,’ is the classical and foundational idea in ancient Chinese political discourse. It is closely linked to the early Chinese cosmology and governance philosophy. It simply contends that the world is interconnected, where a unified moral-political order exists. It views the international arena as a harmonized system where there is no room for fragmentation and chaos. This concept is extensively discussed in ancient Chinese texts, including the ‘Shujing’ (Book of Documents) and ‘Liji’ (Book of Rites). This idea is based upon key principles: a single political community should exist; authority should be derived from justice, benevolence, and the welfare of people; and there should be a Datong (Great Harmony), which is characterized by integration, not domination. The PRC’s Belt and Road Initiative is its prime example whereby China promotes economic interdependence under a shared system.

B. Hé ér bù tóng

The concept of Hé ér bù tóng, meaning ‘harmony without uniformity,’ is another pearl of ancient Chinese wisdom, which, if implemented today in its true form, could lead to a more prosperous world. This concept was first provided by ancient Chinese philosopher Confucius in his classical text, the Lúnyǔ (Analects). He famously stated, “The gentleman seeks harmony but not sameness; the petty man seeks sameness but not harmony.” This idea stipulates various principles. Diverse systems and cultures are compatible. Diversity is not a curse but a blessing. Unity and autonomy should have a delicate balance. This idea is reflected in Chinese-led international organizations such as BRICS, whereby different nations belonging to distinct state systems, cultures, and political thoughts cooperate with each other, prioritizing harmony over uniformity.

C. Shì

The idea of Shì, which can be translated as ‘strategic arrangement of power,’ draws its origins from the works of two of the most outstanding ancient Chinese philosophers and thinkers, Han Feizi and Sun Tzu. Whereas Sun Tzu used this concept on military policies, Han Feizi was more concerned with politics and governance. It negates that idea of brute force; rather, healthy competition is emphasized. This principle states that the positioning of an entity decides its fate. Even a weaker state can win against a stronger one if it controls terrain, time, and position. It works on the idea that the best victory is the one that occurs without direct confrontation. In addition, it also emphasizes the importance of adaptability in the ever-changing geopolitical environment.

D. Wú Wéi

Wú Wéi, also known as ‘non-coercive action,’ contends that statesmen should observe strategic restraint and avoid excessive interventions in state affairs. The concept is based on the fact that minimum interference would produce maximum results. Classical Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu proposed this idea in his canonical work Dao De Jing. He pointed out that rulers must not impose their will too much but instead go with the flow. His famous words were, ‘The best of rulers is but a shadowy figure, who allows the people to rule themselves; even so, all is well.’ This idea also calls for the minimization of conflict, which is the reason we observe China’s non-confrontational stance in international matters. It simply contends that avoiding unnecessary aggression or use of force would result in eternal stability and sustainability. The PRC’s COVID-19 policies are its best manifestation. Instead of pursuing tactical policies, China opted for vaccine diplomacy, allowing the international community to adapt according to their needs and wants.

Why These Concepts Matter Today?

The classical Chinese strategic concepts provide a clear roadmap for every nation, belonging to any ideology, to follow and get the desired outcome in a peaceful manner. The current multipolar world order is in dire need of such guiding principles. What the West has always been doing is implementing their version of a governance model throughout the globe. The Trump 2.0 administration is even more ambitious to do this, which has created a mess on the international chessboard.

The world should abide by the principle of Hé ér bù tóng, which enables diverse groups to coexist peacefully. To preserve its past position of eminence, the US has now embarked on a path whereby it is pursuing a policy of overt domination, compelling states to follow a particular set of standards. This fragmentation could be tackled by the idea of Tiānxià, which promotes integration rather than domination. The multipolarity is a fact today, and the US should come out of its unipolar illusion.

Likewise, the US is once again instigating its competitors by creating instability at their doorsteps. Iran is under attack, Taiwan is already volatile, Japan is going on the offensive, and the Philippines is becoming a new Ukraine. All this arrangement is to hurt the PRC. The world should uphold the principle of Shì — the strategic configuration of power whereby, instead of waging wars against the competitors, an indirect and healthy competition should be observed.

There should be an environment where strategies are executed in a peaceful way to mold the outcomes in one’s own favor. This is exactly what the world is right now witnessing, with the PRC letting the US make mistakes without direct confrontation. Whether it’s Venezuela, Iran, or Cuba, the US is overtly using force to alter the status quo. The world now requires a non-coercive governance model — Wú Wéi — which is characterized by strategic restraint and observes the principles of non-interference.

Conclusion

From Tiānxià to Wú Wéi, Chinese wisdom is calling the world to break the shackles of the past and usher in an era characterized by harmony, integration, and prosperity. The PRC has never imposed its governance model; rather, it has always allowed the international community to adapt Chinese principles as per their strategic needs. Contrary to this, the West has always tried to impose its self-constructed principles on others, the results of which are now apparent. The world is once again standing at the brink of a major catastrophe, which is clear proof of Western failure in managing the geopolitics. Therefore, it’s the prime time to acknowledge the fact and embark on a journey where the wisdom and intellect of different civilizations collectively function together.

 

Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics

NEO: Why the US is at War with Iran and Why the War Might Pause but won't End: Brian Berletic: WED 28th April, 2026: *****************

 

Politics

Why the US is at War with Iran and Why the War Might Pause but Won’t End

Brian Berletic, April 28, 2026

While much discussion of the US war of aggression against Iran has focused on region-specific factors, including the myth that the US is fighting Iran on “behalf of Israel,” there are far more realistic and important global factors that have led to the war and will unfold because of it. 

The war on Iran is part of a decades-spanning US project to assume complete control over the Middle East and the oil and gas that is produced and exported from the region. This is not as a means of taking the energy for the United States’ own use but to establish and enhance a US monopoly over energy production and exports from the US itself and from the nations and regions the US is assuming control over.

This includes most recently Venezuela in Latin America. The early 2026 US war of aggression against the Venezuelan state, kidnapping of the Venezuelan president, and taking hostage of the remaining Venezuelan government led to the almost immediate cutting of Venezuelan oil exports to China and the distribution of Venezuelan oil wealth to US corporations.

What the US often refers to as “security guarantees” for its “allies” is merely a euphemism for US military occupation, political capture, and control of what are actually proxies — not allies

A similar war of aggression by the US against Russia through Ukraine is also quickly expanding into a war directly against Russian energy production, storage, and export infrastructure through the use of drones that — while attributed to Ukraine — the New York Times has revealed are actually overseen by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the US military.

Likewise, the US is encouraging its European proxies under a “division of labor” to expand maritime tracking, interdiction, and seizure of tankers carrying Russian energy exports, as well as a US campaign using maritime drones to attack the tankers. Again, the NYT has identified the US CIA and US military as having “supercharged” what are nominally claimed to be “Ukrainian” operations.

Together with the war on Iran, a clear, global pattern emerges of what is the deliberate US disruption, destruction, and even shutting down of energy exports to Asia in general, but to China specifically.

While the US was likely also attempting to quickly topple the Iranian government to enhance its control over the region and further isolate both Russia and China, a much wider and more global-focused objective was to cut off energy not just from Iran to Asia and specifically China, but from the entire Middle East to Asia and China.

The most recent phase of US aggression against Iran — beginning in late February and as a continuation of violence launched against Iran in both 2025 under the Trump administration and even 2024 at the end of the Biden administration — involved targeting Iranian energy production as well as strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s key energy export facility.

US strikes on Iranian energy production led to retaliatory strikes by Iran on America’s Persian Gulf Arab state proxies, including Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Collectively, this violence led to reduced production across the entire region, subsequently leading to lower energy exports of gas and oil from the entire Middle East to China when compared with pre-war levels.

From the late-February start of hostilities to the recent ceasefire agreement, energy exports from the entire region to China dropped from approximately 52% of China’s total imported needs to around 30%, according to Reuters.

A March 2026 Politico article makes it clear that beyond just China’s dependence on the region for energy, Asia as a whole depends on energy imports from the Middle East for between 70% and 90%+ of their total energy import needs — especially US proxies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and the island province of Taiwan.

Isolating China, Controlling Asia 

Just as the US had previously done to Europe through its instigation of war with Russia in Ukraine, the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, and the implementation of sanctions on all other energy imports from Russia — and now including the striking of Russian energy production, storage, export facilities, and actual tankers carrying Russian energy exports — all of this forcing Europe into energy dependence on US exports — the US is now pursuing a similar policy targeting China and the rest of Asia by deliberately disrupting access to Middle East energy exports.

The war on Iran has led to the close regulation of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, followed by a US-imposed blockade primarily targeting ships exporting energy from Iran to China. While US claims of completely controlling maritime traffic to and from Iran are false, the US blockade has turned back or seized at least half of all maritime traffic attempting to leave Iran onward, mainly to China, the Financial Times reported.

This means that the total energy exports from the region to China have dropped yet again — with many other options held by the US in reserve to decrease regional exports to Asia and specifically China even further.

One option is the threat of resumed US military aggression against Iran, which could see both the deliberate targeting and wider destruction of Iranian energy production and export infrastructure and further Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy production across the US’ Persian Gulf Arab proxies.

The emerging consequences of the US war on Iran and the regional impact it is having are analogous to the US-destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines and the incremental targeting, sanctioning, and restriction of Russian energy flows to Europe, leaving only US energy exports as an option — an option that was not economically viable until the US eliminated existing, cheaper, and reliable alternatives.

With the US war open-ended — having continued from late 2024 to today — with only months of relative calm between US campaigns of military aggression, the prospects of accessing affordable and reliable energy from the Middle East  for China and the rest of Asia are steadily fading.

“Serendipitously,” the US has already begun the expansion of an already massive energy production and export industry targeting Asia specifically.

In 2025, US-based energy corporation Glenfarne and its CEO Brendan Duval repeatedly mentioned the fact that their new  LNG project under construction in Alaska could export energy to Asia “through uncontested and safe shipping lanes.”

No mention was made at the time that it would be the US itself contesting shipping lanes and making them unsafe and thus enhancing the viability of both Glenfarne’s Alaska LNG project as well as the expansion of US energy export capacity in general.

It should be noted that Glenfarne had honed its expertise in exporting/importing LNG through a project in Colombia made possible only by the US sanctioning of neighboring Venezuela and the closure of pipelines that would have otherwise supplied Colombia with gas. Only because of the US-imposed pipeline closure in Venezuela did the importing of Texas LNG to Colombia by Glenfarne make any economic sense.

Similarly, only through US threats of conflict and actual conflict endangering vital maritime chokepoints around the globe does the exporting of LNG to Asia and beyond make any economic sense — just like exporting US LNG to Europe only made sense after Nord Stream was destroyed and sanctions were placed on much cheaper and more readily available Russian energy.

The Cart Before the Horse, But for a Reason  

By the early 2030s, the US is expected to double its LNG export capacity, making it capable of meeting the demands of key Asian proxies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as the island province of Taiwan — but again, only if cheaper and more reliable alternatives remain off the market.

This means that while the US is essentially placing the cart before the horse, it is ensuring that when the horse finally arrives, conditions are ideal for the US and the US alone to benefit.

Just like with Europe and the elimination of their access to cheap Russian energy imports, complete energy dependence on the US of America’s Asian proxies will transform them further and fully into extensions of US geopolitical ambitions in the region and around the globe.

Just like with Europe, serving US interests will come at the cost of each US proxy in Asia as well as at the cost of peace and stability for the entire region, and specifically at the expense of China’s continued rise, just as Europe has been used to target Russia at the expense of both Russia and the rest of Europe.

In addition to the US political capture of these Asian proxies, the presence of US military forces on their territory, and now the imposition of energy dependence upon them, a recent US Senate hearing has made it clear nations like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines will be shaped into military industrial outposts of US power in the region, helping minimize the “tyranny of distance” the US is faced with when provoking war with China on the other side of the planet from where the US is actually located.

The creation of factories making US weapons in Asia and port facilities in the region for implementing repairs on US ships is already underway, with Japan having manufactured and, in some cases, even sending back to America Patriot missile interceptors and South Korea securing deals to maintain US naval cargo vessels.

All of these preparations are taking place ahead of what the US sees as an inevitable confrontation with China itself – which is ultimately the priority driving US conflict against Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and many other nations in the first place, all as a means of first isolating and containing China before confronting it directly.

Considering the costs Europe and Persian Gulf Arab states are paying for their subordination to the US and their role in hosting and facilitating US wars of aggression in their respective regions of the world, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are likewise painting targets on themselves ahead of any confrontation with China.

What the US often refers to as “security guarantees” for its “allies” is merely a euphemism for US military occupaWhy the US is at war with Irantion, political capture, and control of what are actually proxies — not allies. The purpose of maintaining a global network of proxies from Europe to the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific is specifically to have other nations pay all the costs for US foreign policy, allowing the US to assume any and all benefits solely for itself.

The prospect of US war around the globe continuously escalating in the near to intermediate future is inevitable because the wars taking place now are being fought specifically to prepare for a future confrontation with China itself. For this reason, the prospects of the US arriving at any sort of “peace” deal with Russia or Iran are near zero.

Until the interests driving US foreign policy — including the arms industry, big oil and gas, big tech, the automotive industry, and many others — are displaced around the globe by the alternatives offered by multipolarism, and until the multipolar world can create sufficient deterrence against not only US military aggression but also the economic coercion, political interference, and capture that lead to that aggression, the US will continue to hold global peace, prosperity, and stability hostage to its demands for continued unipolar hegemony over the planet.

 

Brian Berletic is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer.