Sunday, March 15, 2026

CounterPunch: The Long War: Iran's Oldest Strategy: 13-03-2026 FRI

 March 13, 2026

The Long War: Iran’s Oldest Strategy

Photograph Source: Cattette – CC BY 4.0

Most discussions of Iran revolve around oil, escalation, and regime change. Yet Iran today feels easier to understand as part of a much older pattern. For more than 2,500 years, states on the Iranian plateau have favoured patience, distance, and endurance over any kind of immediate full-on confrontation with stronger enemies.

To understand Iran today, it therefore helps to trawl through Persian military history.

Iran has been described, unfairly, as two deserts—one with salt and one without, though it is also forested and full of mountains. From all this has emerged one of the world’s most durable martial traditions.

From the chariot nobles and “Immortals” of the Achaemenid Empire to the armoured cavalry of later dynasties—and ultimately to the modern Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—Iranian military institutions have repeatedly adapted.

During the Iran–Iraq War, Iraqi forces saturated the battlefield with chemical weapons while much of the world looked away. Yet Iranian forces endured. That experience still shapes the country’s strategic thinking.

Today, Iran famously emphasises asymmetric warfare—indirect and comparatively inexpensive methods designed to offset the technological advantages of powers such as the United States and Israel. But across the centuries, Persian warfare has often favoured similar patience, mobility, and indirect pressure.

Long before the Persian Empire came about, Indo-Iranian tribes spread like seeds across the Eurasian steppe. The ancestors of Persians, Medes, and Scythians were nomadic pastoralists whose warrior culture centred on horse archery and mobile raiding.

I will always remember the late Iran expert Michael Axworthy telling me at the French House in central London how Persian culture liked to preserve the memory of its warrior elites in the Shahnameh, where heroes famously fought knowing that “a man’s renown is what remains of him.”

Over time groups such as the Medes and Persians formed states. Emerging from these tribal warrior societies, they became more than capable administrators and empire-builders, though their romantic steppe heritage—particularly elite cavalry—continued to shape Iranian warfare.

The first great Persian imperial conqueror was Cyrus the Great. His empire, founded around 550 BC, became one of the largest the ancient world had ever seen. Achaemenid armies fielded archers and spearmen supported by cavalry and elite guards such as the Immortals—a 10,000-man corps whose ranks were continually replenished to that exact number. [It was pointed out to me that part of the weird Christian Zionist hagiography of Trump hailed him as a modern-day Cyrus the Great.]

During the Greco-Persian Wars, these armies brought together Egyptians, Babylonians, Greeks, and Central Asians under one single imperial command. One encounter remains especially famous: the Battle of Thermopylae, where Leonidas I’s Greek force resisted Xerxes I’s invading army. The episode has been retold so many times in Western culture, most recently in the film 300, where Persians appear less as soldiers than as grotesques—an example of how easily enemies become caricatures.

“From childhood we are taught to ride and to shoot,” declares the hero in Gore Vidal’s novel Creation. Vidal uses this idea repeatedly to show that Persians were raised as horsemen and warriors from youth, not trained later as professional soldiers. The Greeks admired individual glory in battle, Vidal is saying, while Persians value order, discipline, and organisation.

When the Achaemenid Empire collapsed under Alexander the Great, however, Persian political power fragmented with it. Yet they say the military traditions of the Iranian plateau did not disappear. If anything, they evolved.

The Parthian Empire developed one of the ancient world’s most distinctive fighting styles. Its armies relied on highly mobile horse archers this time supported by heavily armoured cataphracts. Like the great horse warriors of the Native American Plains, the Parthians were legendary riders, able to twist in the saddle and fire arrows backwards in the famous ‘Parthian shot.’

These tactics proved devastating at the Battle of Carrhae, where Parthian forces destroyed a Roman army commanded by Marcus Licinius Crassus. Later writers claimed molten gold was poured into Crassus’s mouth—perhaps apocryphal, but too memorable to be lost.

The broader lesson was familiar on the Iranian plateau. Stronger enemies could often be worn down through distance, manoeuvre, and patience.

The Sasanian Empire refined this. Its elite warriors, the Savaran, were heavily armoured noble cavalrymen armed with long lances and swords, forming the backbone of a state that for centuries rivalled Rome and Byzantium.

Exhausted by long wars with Rome, however, the Sasanian state did eventually collapse under the Arab conquest in AD 651. The empire fell, but Persian administrative and military traditions continued. Early Islamic rulers adopted many of these, just as later conquerors—from the Seljuks to the Mongols—also found that governing Iran meant working within Persian traditions of statecraft and war.

A distant echo of this pattern perhaps appears today in the IRGC’s increasingly challenged support for regional militias from Hezbollah and Hamas to the Houthis in Yemen and the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan.

Under the Qajar dynasty, attempts to modernise the army included the creation of the Persian Cossack Brigade, a Russian-trained unit that became Iran’s most effective military force. After the Russian Revolution the brigade passed into Iranian hands, and its commander, Reza Khan, used it to launch the 1921 coup that brought the Pahlavi monarchy to power—an event quietly tolerated by Britain.

Today, long after the overthrow of the Shah, Iran fields two main military institutions: the national army and the earlier mentioned, still powerful IRGC created after the 1979 revolution.

The Islamic Republic was immediately tested by war. Saddam Hussein’s invasion in 1980 forced Iran into an eight-year struggle fought under isolation and repeated Iraqi chemical attacks. Iran’s conventional forces struggled against Iraq’s better-equipped army.

Yet the war delivered a crucial lesson: survival itself could count as success.

Basically, endurance and mobilisation allowed the Islamic Republic to outlast what many expected would be swift collapse. The conflict left a deep imprint on Iranian military thinking, reinforcing a threatening preference for attrition and indirect pressure rather than conventional confrontation with technologically superior enemies. The pattern will be familiar.

The Iranian warrior is no longer a horseman but a modern soldier equipped with missiles, drones, and cyber capabilities. Yet the imagery of the past remains relevant. Heroes like Rostam from the Shahnameh appear alongside Sasanian cavalry and the martyr traditions of the Iran–Iraq War in Iran’s modern military imagination.

Their current strategy is therefore less an anomaly than the latest expression of a long tradition. The steppe archers who once hassled and harried their enemies, the Parthians who exhausted Roman legions through manoeuvre and distance, and later Persian states that absorbed new technologies while preserving older traditions all find an echo in Iran’s reliance today on missiles, drones, proxy militias, and dispersed forces.

Rather than seeking immediate battlefield triumph, Iran appears today to be preparing for something else. This is a long contest of attrition.

The “distance” once commanded by the Parthian horse archer has not disappeared—it has simply changed form. Where a nomad once used the range of a bow, the modern state uses missiles or the geopolitical buffer of proxy militias.

The principle remains the same: this is to keep the enemy at arm’s length and wear down their resolve.

Geography reinforces this strategy. Don’t forget Iran sits astride the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, surrounded by mountains and deserts that favour defence and attrition.

If history tells us anything, Iran will not try to win quickly. Instead it will aim to ensure that any enemy drawn into conflict finds itself fighting a long war.

Foreign powers have underestimated Iran for more than twenty-five centuries—and repeatedly discovered that Iranian states possess a stubborn capacity to endure, adapt, and outlast stronger enemies. What we are witnessing today may therefore be the opening phase of a highly regrettable conflict shaped not by decisive battles, but by endurance.

Peter Bach lives in London.

NEO: Shield of the Americas: The Geopolitics behind US-Led Counter-Cartel Coalition: Sunday, 15-03-2026

 

Shield of the Americas: The Geopolitics Behind US-Led Counter-Cartel Coalition

Taut Bataut, March 15, 2026

Under Trump’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, the US has advanced a new coalition, “Shield of the Americas,” in the Western Hemisphere. While framed as a counter-cartel initiative, the effort also seeks to curb China’s expanding influence in Latin America. Beijing is closely monitoring the development and adjusting its regional strategy to preserve its long-term foothold.

Shield of the Americas: The Geopolitics Behind US-Led Counter-Cartel Coalition

The assumption of the Oval Office by President Trump has once again revived the idea of ‘spheres of influence,’ although this concept contends that each regional power would restrict its hegemonic objectives to its neighborhood or the near abroad. But under the Trump 2.0 administration, this seems quite debatable, as the US is directly or indirectly infusing tensions and chaos at its counterpart’s borders. The ongoing war in Iran is its best manifestation. However, in the case of the Western Hemisphere, the US is not bearing any kind of foreign footprints, considering it a national security concern for the country. The Trump administration is determined to securitize the Western Hemisphere, in particular Central and Latin America, ultimately creating a regional order that provides no room for any external power to even engage diplomatically. Thus, on March 7, 2026, the US launched a security alliance in the region, which the Trump administration is entitling the ‘Shield of the Americas.’
The Trump administration has accepted the fact that the PRC is now a peer competitor of the US, which has all the capabilities and intent to surpass US global power

What is the Shield of Americas (SoAs)?

The Shield of Americas (SoAs) is a newly launched multilateral military alliance between the US and Latin American states. The “Shield of the Americas” conference, which the White House described as such, was held by US President Donald Trump on Saturday in Miami at his golf club with Latin American leaders. As per the US officials, this multilateral grouping is aimed at dismantling drug cartels and criminal networks operating in the region through a combined security web. It is also meant to contain external powers’ influence in the region, which threatens American security.

“The alliance is our commitment to use lethal military force to destroy the sinister cartels and terrorist networks” (President Donald J. Trump – SoAs Summit)

The alliance is comprised of approximately seventeen member countries, with the exclusion of Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Another major interesting fact about the grouping is that it is mainly comprised of Trump’s like-minded partner nations – far-right conservative Latin American governments. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads the alliance, while Kristi Noem acts as the special envoy for the Shield of Americas, appointed by President Trump.

Rationale Behind the Alliance

The National Security Strategy of the US, launched in December 2025, clearly mentioned the implementation of the ‘Enlist and Expand’ strategy in the Western Hemisphere. It simply refers to the picking and choosing of like-minded governments, in particular the far-right conservatives, and creating a multilateral coalition to impose the Monroe Doctrine on the region.

The NSS stated, “We will enlist established friends in the hemisphere to control migration, stop drug flows, and strengthen stability and security on land and sea. By fostering and reinforcing new relationships, we will expand while simultaneously promoting our own country’s attractiveness as the region’s preferred economic and security partner.” The establishment of “Shield of Americas” is its actual implementation.

One of the major objectives of the coalition is the economic encirclement of the region, which includes a U.S.-backed alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) advances in Latin America. To prevent Chinese transshipment, the United States is attempting to establish supply chain corridors through tax breaks, tariff reductions, and a shared set of rules of origin. Similarly, the “Americas Energy Compact” will require Latin American countries to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States.

In terms of defense and security, the US wants to create a hemispheric security network with the overt objective of curbing transnational terrorism and drug cartels while covertly using such means to ensure maximum containment of the PRC in the region. As China has provided port-building facilities to Latin American states to boost its economic ties with the region, the US, through heightened security initiatives, wants to construct a ‘western port culture’ where the US-made rules would be implemented for trade and commerce. Through such measures, the US is trying to re-engage and mold the region into a strict Western governance order.

Chinese Countermeasures

Anticipating the upcoming threats, on December 10, 2025, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) issued its third policy paper, entitled “China Latin America and the Caribbean Policy Paper.” Preserving its foothold in the region, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has put together a task force whose mandate is to maintain its gains in the region and take further countermeasures against any future American moves. Under this policy, China has launched five programs for building a China-LAC community, which include the Solidarity Program, Development Program, Civilization Program, Peace Program, and People-to-People Connectivity Program.

The policy paper came as a response to the Trump administration’s national security strategy, which contradicts China’s policies in the region. In spite of pressure from Washington, the PRC is maintaining its relations with the Latin American states, providing an alternative order surpassing the Western scrutiny and pressure points. Thus, China’s strategy in the region is centered around political and economic engagement rather than what the US tries to frame it as: ‘offensive intervention’ in its neighborhood.

Future Trajectory

No doubt, the launch of ‘Shield of Americas’ is a significant development, but it faces serious complications. The Western Hemisphere is already crowded with more than 40 organizations. The addition of a new one would only add to the mess and disrupt the status quo of the region. Moreover, the coalition is more symbolic in nature. Just like the Board of Peace, this grouping could face regional backlash and global condemnation. The results of such a coalition would be tactical, as seen.

This alliance consists predominantly of conservative governments, which is consistent with the Trump administration’s ideology. With geopolitical changes being very imminent, what if in the near future the region reneges on a left-wing wave again? Would the alliance remain intact? Likewise, if Democrats came into power in the US, the alliance could face serious setbacks. Therefore, the establishment of this regional coalition could be considered an accelerating change but not necessarily an inflection point.

Conclusion

The Shield of the Americas is basically another Chinese containment initiative taken by the Trump administration under the guise of counter-drug-cartel operations. From the inaugural address to the NDS, the Trump administration has accepted the fact that the PRC is now a peer competitor of the US, which has all the capabilities and intent to surpass US global power. Therefore, such so-called coalitions are being formed to either reduce or evade this reality. On the other hand, China has already started taking countermeasures and is determined to implement its strategies based on long-term strategic thinking, as compared to short-sighted, symbolic steps taken by the US.

 

Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics

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Greater Israel: What’s Next After Iran?… Turkey? Pakistan?

NEO: Greater Israel: What's next after Iran? ..... Turkey? Pakistan? : 12-03-2026. **********

 

Greater Israel: What’s Next After Iran?… Turkey? Pakistan?

Aleena Im , March 12, 2026

As the US-Israel offensive against Iran reshapes the Middle East, new alliances are forming between Muslim-majority states such as Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia in response to Bibi’s ‘Greater Israel’ ambitions.

Greater Israel: What’s Next After Iran?… Turkey? Pakistan?

At the same time, Israel is building counter-alliances, raising fears that once Iran is weakened, Ankara—and potentially Islamabad—could become the next strategic targets.

The Middle East has turned into a site of unprecedented chaos thanks to the US and Israel launching a direct offensive against Iran. The attacks that started on 28th February 2026 are still going on, with many key members of the top leadership of Iran (including the Supreme Leader) having been martyred. Trump’s ultimate aim is unknown to almost everyone – including himself – as he flips between ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ‘protecting the US from imminent Iranian threats’ (which are geographically almost impossible), protecting women’s rights, and ‘removing a tyrant.’ However, Bibi Netanyahu, who has been calling for the dismantling of Iran’s non-existent nuclear program since the 90s, is following through with Israel’s ultimate aim: Creating Greater Israel.

From Gaza to Iran, one thing is clear: neither anti-American nor anti-Israel administrations have the right to occupy space in the Middle East

The uninitiated might think that Iran is the last bone of contention for Israel, but that’s not the case. Both American and Israeli officials are now explicitly declaring the ‘Muslim Brotherhood/Islam’ a threat to peace and stability in the region. It is pretty evident from their conversations that Israel will not stop at Iran; rather, it needs to eliminate/suppress any threat that will hinder it in completely taking over the ‘Promised Land’ of Greater Israel.

Revival of the Muslim Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood ideology includes promoting Islamic laws and morals and engaging society through offering social services. It is based on bringing political and social reforms throughout the Muslim world to create a firm Islamic community. The three main pillars of Muslim Brotherhood ideology include political independence, cultural resistance to the hostile Western forces, and protection of the Islamic identity. As of today, Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan are considered to be the major proponents of this ideology.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt initially favoured the idea of creating a solid Muslim Brotherhood – something that should come naturally to Islamic States, like an Islamic NATO – but later on banned it in their efforts to normalise relations with Israel – either for financial gains or to protect their countries from US-Israel interventions (read Iraq, Syria, Lebanon…).

However, Israel’s full invasion of Gaza since October 2023 has slightly altered these traditional dynamics. Muslim nations that were just a step away from recognising Israel, like Saudi Arabia, have now taken a step back; instead, those that had already recognised Israel, i.e., Turkey, broke ties with it because the Turkish masses staunchly support the innocent people of Gaza. Ever since the genocide started, an informal coalition of like-minded Muslim countries has been developing to stand against Israeli atrocities and hegemonic actions in the Middle East.

In September 2025, Israel attacked Qatar, accusing it of hosting and providing safe havens to Hamas leaders in its territory. In the meantime, the Trump 2.0 administration propagated its conservative policies throughout the world, including the Middle East, with ideas of extracting troops from the region. The unreliability of the US and Israel’s extremely offensive behaviour compelled the Gulf States to search for alternatives for their security and survival. The Muslim Brotherhood re-emerged here. States such as Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc., began to draw closer to one another.

Saudi Arabia signed a strategic defence pact with Pakistan in September 2025 that clearly stated that any attack on one country would be regarded as an attack on the other. The Pakistan-Turkey military alliance in the maritime sector and airborne warfare is already at its zenith. Similarly, Pakistan and Egypt entered into several accords to enhance intelligence exchange and counterterrorism activities in January 2026. Analysts are referring to these alignments as the creation of an Islamic NATO. Yet, nations such as the UAE remain opposed to this concept and are increasingly warming up to Israel as a counter to the rising pan-Islamism in the Middle East.

Hexagon of Alliances

Israel is forming a counter-group to encircle Muslim states in response to the ever-growing links between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan. By December 2025, a trilateral cooperation agreement between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus was signed in order to improve the coordination of maritime and aviation safety. This trilateral grouping is created to encircle Turkey in the Middle East. Both Greece and Cyprus have a dispute with Turkey in the Mediterranean. This group is termed by analysts as a ‘Mediterranean NATO.’ Similarly, Israel formally recognised Somaliland, a separatist, unrecognised territorial enclave within Somalia, in December 2025. Muslim nations, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, criticised this step by Israel and expressed complete support for Somalia.

In February 2026, Israeli PM Netanyahu, just two days before Indian PM Modi visited Israel, stated plans to form a new regional bloc and framed the Middle East as divided into ‘radical Sunni and Shia’ axes. He suggested a “hexagon of alliances,” which he claimed would include Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus, and other unspecified Arab, African, and Asian nations. He said that they would join forces to fight together against what he termed “radical” opponents. He made it clear that ‘the goal is to establish an axis of nations that share our perspective on the realities, challenges, and objectives in opposition to the radical axes, including the radical Shia axis, which we have attacked severely, as well as the growing radical Sunni axis’.

This is an admission of Bibi’s real goals: Iran is considered to be the last Shia entity from the radical Shia axis, and is already under heavy attack. However, the emerging friendships between Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are what will now become the radical Sunni axis”. It is glaringly obvious: Any Muslim-majority country that does not completely submit to the US and Israel will be labelled a ‘radical Islamic country’ that threatens the Western principles of ‘democracy and freedom’.

Is Turkey the New Iran?

“Neither the United States nor Israel has the capacity to impose a unilateral solution in the Middle East” (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

Among the major proponents of the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey is considered to be one of the most powerful Muslim nations with respect to defense and security. Being a NATO member, Turkey plays a leading role in the southern flank of the alliance. For the US, Turkey provides counterterrorism assistance in the Middle East. For the EU, Turkey provides migration immunity, acting as a buffer. For China, Turkey provides East-West connectivity, while its close relations with the Russian Federation, being a NATO member, provide significant leverage to Russia in the Mediterranean. For Gulf States, Turkey presents a suitable alternative to the US for defence acquisitions. From economic to military contacts, Turkey has increased its sphere of influence in the past few years. Turkey has a sizable military presence in the conquered area of Cyprus, a base in Qatar, and a large military presence in Libya and Somalia.

In addition, the reduced role of Russia in the Middle East due to it being occupied by the West-imposed Ukraine conflict and increasing economic turmoil in Iran has ensured a greater role for Turkey in the region. Moreover, Turkey’s active military intervention in Syria to protect its southern borders and growing ties with its new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, further add to the layer. This elevation of Ankara’s role in the region has raised alarms in Israeli strategic circles. “A new Turkish threat is emerging…” former Israeli PM Naftali observed in February 2026. “And from here I caution: Turkey is the new Iran. With his complex and risky approach, Erdoğan aims to surround Israel.” He also accused Turkey of “trying to flip Saudi Arabia against Israel and establish a hostile Sunni axis with nuclear Pakistan and create a new choke ring with Syria and Gaza.”

On March 2, 2026, former Turkish politician Suat Kinikligolu wrote“Israel requires a consistent external threat to maintain its internal unity and survival. A new foe is required if Iran ceases to pose a threat. We are that foe.” This shows that Turkey would be the immediate target of Israel once the Iranian matter is resolved. However, there are sharp differences between Turkey and Iran, whereby it would not be as easy for Israel to target Turkey as it targeted Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran. Türkiye is ranked among the 10 best military forces in the world based on the Global Firepower (GFP) index.

The same is the case with Pakistan – rather, it is infinitely trickier – since Pakistan has extremely competent armed forces and nuclear capabilities. Despite Bibi’s statements (and pressure on the US) from the 90s to dismantle the ‘dangerous nuclear programs’ in Pakistan, the West has been unable to get its hands on them thus far. Therefore, experts are of the view that it would be difficult for Israel to directly attack Turkey and Pakistan; rather, Israel would most probably pursue an indirect strategy by creating chaos at their borders and supporting various anti-Turkey and anti-Pakistan movements in the region. This is further evidenced by the suspicious timing of the increased suicide attacks in Pakistan, leading to a Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict that started just before the attack on Iran, and by the increased love between Modi and Bibi that has suddenly intensified.

Conclusion

The US and Israel are now altering the status quo of the Middle East, whereby threats are not eliminated but rather relocated, which serves their interests in the region. From Gaza to Iran, one thing is clear: neither anti-American nor anti-Israel administrations have the right to occupy space in the Middle East. The official statements and practical steps taken by Israel are evidence that their next target after Iran would be the Islamic Republic of Turkey and/or Pakistan. However, Turkey’s diplomatic, economic, and cultural significance and Turkey and Pakistan’s military prowess are significantly deterring Israelis from launching any direct misadventure against it at the moment.

Whether by employing non-state proxies, attacking/invading countries openly, or even by establishing alliances, one thing is for certain: Israel is determined to crush any Muslim country that has the power to oppose it – and it has no qualms about using the US to do so.

 

Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs

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