NEO: The U.S. Escalation in Venezuela : Beuond oil and the Old Doctrines: 04-10-2025

Security The U.S. Escalation in Venezuela: Beyond Oil and the Old Doctrines Ricardo Martins, October 04, 2025 As U.S. warships gather off Venezuela’s coast and Washington prepares possible drone strikes, the official narrative of a “war on drugs” crumbles. What is at stake is not narcotics, but sovereignty, oil, and the global contest between multipolarity and American hegemony. The U.S. Escalation in Venezuela: Beyond Oil and the Old Doctrines The latest escalation of U.S. military pressure on Venezuela is taking on increasingly dangerous dimensions, and an imminent drone strike is expected. Over recent weeks, American warships have patrolled the Caribbean coast, engaging in strikes against small Venezuelan boats under the official pretext of targeting narco-traffickers. Yet the lack of concrete evidence suggests these may well have been civilians attempting to flee a collapsing economy rather than drug smugglers. The United States has now dispatched eight warships, a nuclear-powered submarine, three guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious squadron, around 4,500 sailors, and 22,000 Marines to the southern Caribbean. NBC and Democracy Now report that U.S. military officials are even drawing up options for drone strikes inside Venezuelan territory Caracas has not remained idle. President Nicolás Maduro has called on the population to prepare for confrontation, with thousands of civilians joining the Bolivarian militia and taking part in drills across the country. For Washington, Venezuela represents both a stubborn adversary and a symbol of defiance The Venezuelan army, backed by Russian-supplied air defence systems such as the Antey-2500, has also been conducting exercises to display readiness. This is no longer just a rhetorical confrontation; it is a dangerous military buildup in the Caribbean basin. A Long History of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions The current standoff is not an isolated episode but part of a two-decade trajectory. Relations deteriorated sharply after Hugo Chávez survived a U.S.-backed coup attempt in 2002, one that collapsed within 48 hours amid mass protests and loyalist military support. Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution, with its discourse of twenty-first-century socialism, nationalisation of oil resources, and regional integration through the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), became a direct challenge to Washington’s regional dominance. The U.S. response was twofold: political delegitimisation and economic strangulation. Under both Democratic and Republican administrations, sanctions multiplied, hitting Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy particularly hard. Washington openly recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as “interim president” in 2019, further undermining Venezuela’s sovereignty. Today, Donald Trump has doubled down, offering a $50 million bounty on Maduro’s capture or assassination, a grotesque gesture that strips any pretence of diplomacy or respect for another country’s sovereignty. The “Drug Trafficking” Narrative Washington insists its military buildup is part of a campaign against narco-trafficking, which is reproduced as truth by most European media. Yet this narrative collapses under scrutiny. The principal cocaine producers and exporters in the region remain Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Venezuela has negligible drug output, according to UN figures. Moreover, Venezuela has sent troops to the Colombian border to prevent drug trafficking into its country. The “cartel of the Suns,” which U.S. officials claim Maduro himself leads, has little recognition outside Trump’s rhetoric. What emerges instead is a familiar pattern: the instrumentalisation of drug control as a pretext for military projection. This logic recalls the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama to oust Manuel Noriega, a CIA asset, also justified in the language of drugs and security. Oil, Geopolitics, and Multipolarity Behind the thin veil of narcotics lies the core issue: oil. Venezuela possesses the largest proven reserves in the world, estimated at nearly 300 billion barrels. Chávez’s decision to nationalise the oil industry and redirect revenues to social programmes marked a decisive rupture with the era of U.S. corporate control. According to the geopolitical analyst Ben Norton, for Washington, the Bolivarian project was never just ideological: it directly threatened American access to cheap energy. Yet oil is not the only factor. The geopolitical alignment of Venezuela with Russia, China, and Iran has made the country a hub of multipolar defiance in the Western Hemisphere. Nearly 90 per cent of Venezuelan crude is now exported to China, which has lent Caracas more than $60 billion in recent decades Beijing is also modernising Venezuela’s decaying oil infrastructure and providing military equipment. Russia, meanwhile, has delivered fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, and advisers. Moscow’s military footprint in Venezuela remains limited, but its symbolic weight is considerable: Russian jets landing in Caracas transform a local standoff into a potential global flashpoint. This is why Venezuela looms so large in Washington’s imagination. It is not merely about regime change in Caracas; it is about preventing China and Russia from consolidating influence in what the U.S. still perceives as its exclusive sphere under the Monroe Doctrine. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton openly revived this doctrine during Trump’s first term. The colonial undertone was evident: Latin America, persistently framed as Washington’s “backyard,” remains a contested terrain, now reaffirmed by the present Secretary of State Marco Rubio with less brain and more rigid ideological emphasis. Venezuela’s Defence and the Risk of Proxy War Venezuela’s conventional military capacity is limited compared to the U.S., but it is not negligible. Russian-made Su-30 fighter jets, anti-aircraft systems, and armoured brigades would make any U.S. incursion costly. More importantly, the mobilisation of militias (civilians trained and armed for territorial defence) suggests that Caracas is preparing for asymmetric warfare. Any U.S. strike could therefore ignite not a swift operation but a drawn-out insurgency, potentially worse than Iraq. This is precisely what makes escalation so risky. Any U.S. action could trigger a wider indirect confrontation with Russia and China, which have both invested heavily in Venezuela’s oil sector and see the country as a foothold in the Americas. The spectre of a proxy war, fought on South American soil, cannot be dismissed. The Question of Sovereignty and International Law Beyond the geostrategic chessboard lies a more fundamental question: the right of nations to self-determination. Venezuela, regardless of its internal political and economic crisis, poses no military threat to the United States. Yet Washington continues to treat it as a target for regime change, in defiance of the UN Charter and international law. The U.S. justification, as revealed by Ben Norton, of “protecting Americans from drugs” rings hollow when set against the broader historical record. Latin America has endured two centuries of U.S. interventions, from the 19th-century occupations of Nicaragua and Haiti to Cold War coups in Guatemala and Chile. The Venezuelan crisis is not an aberration but the continuation of this imperial legacy under new pretexts. Conclusion: A Dangerous Gamble In the coming days and weeks, the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean could either remain a show of force or escalate into direct confrontation. A full-scale invasion appears unlikely, given the lack of regional or international support and the spectre of another “forever war.” Yet limited drone strikes or targeted raids remain possible and would set a precedent for bypassing sovereignty altogether. For Washington, Venezuela represents both a stubborn adversary and a symbol of defiance. For Caracas, the crisis is framed as a struggle not just for oil or socialism, but for independence itself. For the world, it is a dangerous reminder that international law is only as strong as great powers allow it to be. If the U.S. does proceed militarily, the consequences will reverberate across Latin America, embolden anti-American sentiment, and deepen global polarisation between the U.S. and the emergent multipolar order. In short, Venezuela, rescuing its son Simón Bolívar, may once again become the stage where old doctrines collide with new realities. Ricardo Martins, PhD in Sociology, specializing in International Relations and Geopolitics Follow new articles on our Telegram channel More on this topic Trump Wants Europe to fight its own conflict Salman Rafi Sheikh Asia dismantles the silicon siege and redraws the map of global power Rebecca Chan Pakistan and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Sign a Mutual Defense Agreement Vladimir Terehov The Woke West Can’t Recognize Real Nazis Bryan Anthony Reo Trump’s Gaza Plan: A Peace Proposal or a Political Cover for Occupation? Abbas Hashemite Tags: Conflict escalation, Geopolitics, Multipolar world, USA, Venezuela About Contact Us Contributors Home Politics Economy Security Society Asia Americas Africa Oceania Europe Interviews Publications X Telegram GAB Vkontakte OK Network edition New Eastern Outlook 2010-2025 Republishing of the articles is welcomed with reference to NEO. The views of the authors do not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the editorial board. Институт востоковедения РАН